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Best last-minute NFL bets ahead of Week 16

Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) celebrates with wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) after scoring against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Late-week betting action isn’t the best approach if long-term profitability is the goal. Game spreads and totals become increasingly sharp moving closer to kickoff, which is why betting game lines early in the week is the best approach. 

If betting early in the week isn’t an option, then targeting other markets where lines aren’t stale is key. Beating these markets takes a different approach than those focused solely on the game lines. We can take cues from bookmakers pricing the entire portfolio of offerings on a particular matchup. They arrive at the most likely path the game will travel and then use market dynamics to sharpen the number. In some way, game lines feed derivatives, player props and most other offerings under that matchup umbrella.

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We can start by seeing if there are any game lines we disagree with and utilize a couple of different approaches if so.

Mispriced scenarios should have even worse mispricing further downstream as errors compound. If the game line is only subtly off, it's smart to find where its errors are the most drastic.

This article hit one of two parlays in Week 15 for a +1.65 unit performance and was one leg short of a perfect week. Written play payouts move to 10-23 on the season, down -2.16 units on the season.

It’s time to close strong using the approaches above, let's find the best last-minute NFL bets ahead of Week 16.

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DENVER BRONCOS @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

There may be a few reasons to buy into a Drew Lock renaissance on Sunday. He immediately looked to push the ball downfield after taking over in Week 15, recording a 14.3-yard average depth of target (aDot) on 12 pass attempts. Denver’s offense hasn't been able to connect on these shots downfield, and — despite a 50% completion percentage — Lock has flashed some ability to complete those deep shots.

This fits the Broncos' receivers, as both Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick are capable of winning downfield. Over 60% of Sutton’s targets and 50% of Patrick's have come 10 or more yards downfield. The Raiders‘ coverage unit is falling apart at the seams and now sits as the 19th-best unit in coverage grade this season. 

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