It’s much tougher to find betting value later on in the week ahead of the college football slate, which makes betting early key, but there are still some good looks across the board.
Here, I’m eyeing two team totals, a Mountain West road favorite and an underdog in a matchup that only a college football maniac could love. To get as much info as possible heading into the final weekend of the college football regular season, but sure to check out PFF Greenline for its top edges on the board.
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Boise State Broncos (-2.5) @ San Diego State Aztecs
Projection: Boise State -6.4
San Diego State is one of the few ranked Group of Five teams — entering this game with a 10-1 record — but the Broncos have some advantages in this matchup. They’ll be matching up with an Aztec offense that ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per play and success rate. Meanwhile, Boise State has been very good against the pass — ranking 12th in coverage grade — and is set up to dominate a passing attack that ranks 116th in yards per attempt. San Diego State quarterback Lucas Johnson ranks 97th in passing grade and has hit only eight completions on passes of 20-plus yards down the field all season.
The Aztecs haven’t been able to get much going on the ground, either, where they rank 102nd in EPA per carry. It’s tough to see San Diego State having much success there against this defense, with the Broncos ranking 31st in run-defense grade. Overall, Boise State ranks 14th in points allowed per drive, and this defense should overwhelm the Aztec offense in both facets.
San Diego State’s strength has definitely been on the defensive side of the ball, ranking fourth in EPA allowed per play. Boise State will admittedly have a tough test against this group, but its passing game is more than capable of putting points on the board. Quarterback Hank Bachmeier slots in the national top 25 in passing grade, adjusted completion percentage and turnover-worthy play rate, while his go-to target Khalil Shakir ranks ninth in the country in receiving grade.
The Broncos will have an uphill battle in the run game, but I like the passing offense to put enough points on the board to cover this number and hand the Aztecs their second loss of the year.
Miami (OH) RedHawks Team Total OVER 32 @ Kent State Golden Flashes
Projection: 35.9
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