This is the best time of the year to be a college football fan. There’s a whole pile of marquee rivalry matchups on tap this week, and the hope is that we can make the viewing experience even more enjoyable by putting some winning betting tickets in your pocket.
These betting lines are tight due to the many data points on every team, so it's key to get in early and stay ahead of the line movements.
Without further ado, here are some of this week’s biggest edges compared to my model’s projections. Make sure to check out PFF Greenline for additional value, as well.
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UAB Blazers (-13) vs. UTEP Miners
Projection: UAB -16.7
The Blazers are coming off a heartbreaking loss to undefeated UTSA last week, which means they won’t be participating in the Conference USA Championship game for the first time since 2017. They should have no trouble getting back into the win column to close out the regular season, though. UAB boasts the sixth-best overall defense in 2021, headlined by top-five grades in pass rushing and run defense.
Never say never, but it’s hard to see UTEP doing anything on the ground against this group, with the Miners ranking dead last in rushing success rate. There hasn’t been a lot of down-to-down consistency in the passing game, either, but receiver Jacob Cowing has proved to be an explosive option.
UTEP quarterback Gavin Hardison has also been a mistake machine, recording the second-highest turnover-worthy throw rate in the nation. Those troubles could be amplified by a menacing pass rush on the other side.
UTEP’s defense looks pretty decent in terms of raw statistics, but that’s been greatly aided by the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the country, per my numbers. UAB’s ground game will be a good test for this group, as DeWayne McBride is one of the most violent runners in the country. He ranks in the top 10 in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt.
UAB’s passing game has been very explosive but admittedly needs a little more consistency. Quarterback Dylan Hopkins ranks second in the country in yards per attempt and eighth in big-time throw rate, but just 102nd in turnover-worthy play rate. He’s been incredible over the past two weeks, though, as his 91.6 passing grade over that span trails only Alabama’s Bryce Young. He’ll look to keep it going against a secondary that slots in at 61st in coverage grade.
Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.
Eastern Michigan Eagles (+9) @ Central Michigan Chippewas
Projection: Eastern Michigan +5.1
There are a lot of “defense-optional” teams in the MAC, and both of these squads fit that bill. When trying to find where Eastern Michigan will have an edge, look no further than the passing game, where Central Michigan’s defense ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per pass and yards allowed per coverage snap.
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