NFL Week 4: Top Data-Driven Player Prop Bets

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22) runs the ball against the Cleveland Browns during the second quarter at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

· Bet Steelers RB Najee Harris u69.5 rush yards (-111; play down to 63.5 yards): Harris averaging paltry 3.2 YPC, with the NFL's worst rushing yards over expected mark (-1.69 RYOE) among players with 25+ carries.

· Bet Browns TE David Njoku o36.5 receiving yards (-101; play up to 39.5 yards): Coming off 8-89 receiving on 85% snap share; Falcons have allowed fourth-most yards to TEs.

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Estimated reading time: 4 mins

Player Props have one of the most popular markets offered in sportsbooks right now. Because of its similarity to fantasy football, something most bettors grew up playing, it’s easy to translate the thought process from fantasy football to player props. Here at PFF, you can utilize the Best Bets tab on the website to help sift through the most +EV props to bet on based on our model. As always, shop around and try to make sure you get the best price possible on all your picks, one of the first steps to becoming a profitable bettor long term.

Typically, our play of the week is a 1.5-unit bet, and our other plays are straight 1-unit bets. Now let’s dive into the Week 4 slate and identify the best player prop bets.

Play of the Week

Houston Texans PK Ka’imi Fairbairn o1.5 FGM (+105; play down to -105) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

· Since the start of the 2021 season, the Chargers have allowed 39 successful field goals by the opposition — fifth-most in the NFL. So far in 2022, the Chargers defense has not lived up to the hype, allowing 0.072 EPA/play (24th) and a 46.2% success rate (25th), so teams are moving the ball against them pretty easily.

· Without Joey Bosa, the Chargers run defense and pass rush takes a massive hit. This should allow the Texans to move the ball into Chargers territory, even if star CB J.C. Jackson makes his return to the lineup. 

· Fairbairn has yet to miss a kick this season and has gone over 1.5 field goals in each game. The Texans have the eighth-highest FG drive percentage (% of drives that result in a FG), and the Chargers have the eighth-highest FG drive percentage allowed, which is a positive sign for our bet.

Seattle Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny anytime TD (+150; play down to +110) @ Detroit Lions

· The Lions have allowed 7 rushing touchdowns in 3 games, most in the NFL so far in 2022. They don’t have a good run defense, allowing 4.6 YPC to running backs alone.

· The Seahawks are the only offense to not have run a single play inside the 5- yard line. That might seem bad, but the Lions have allowed a whopping 17 plays to be run inside the 5-yard line (most in the NFL). If we even get a little bit of positive regression to the league average from the Seahawks, this will help our bet cash.

· As a runner, Penny has been really good, averaging 4.4 YPC and 1.14 rushing yards over expected. The alternative to this bet would be his over rushing yards, or even parlaying the two together, but we’ll roll for now with his anytime  TD.

Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku o36.5 receiving yards (-101; play up to 39.5 yards) @ Atlanta Falcons

· Njoku finally had the breakout game we were all waiting for last Thursday as he totaled 89 yards on 8 catches. According to PFF’s Nathan Jahnke, Njoku ran a route on 85% of the Browns dropbacks — which is a good sign going forward.

· The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most yards to tight ends in 2022, including 105 last week to the combo of Colby Parkinson, Will Dissly, and Noah Fant. In fact, at least 1 tight end has gone over 36.5 yards in each of the Falcons' three games this year.

· Atlanta's primary coverage schemes consist of Cover 2 and Cover 3, which entails forcing the offense to hit the checkdowns more often and methodically work its way down the field. Njoku’s aDOT this year is 4.8, so he's well suited for the role needed to break Atlanta’s defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris under 69.5 rushing yards (-111; play down to 63.5) vs. New York Jets

· Najee Harris has been one of the least efficient running backs in the NFL thus far in 2022. He’s averaging a paltry 3.2 YPC, and has the worst rushing yards over expected mark among all players with 25 carries (-1.69 RYOE). He hasn’t hit this mark in any of his 3 games, despite all of them neutral game scripts.

· The Jets actually have a pretty solid run defense. Led by Quinnen Wiliams and Sheldon Rankins up the middle, they’ve only allowed a 4.0 YPC to running backs and are right around league average when it comes to rushing success rate allowed

· As seen in the graph, the Jets run a lot of single high looks, meaning they drop the strong safety into the box, adding an extra run defender and a slight advantage in the run game. Add in a pretty weak Steelers O-line and it should make life tough for Harris, who’s already banged up and hasn’t been able to generate any yards for himself.  

Arjun’s data-driven prop bets went 3-1 (+2 units) last week which brings his season record to 7-6 (+1.24 units).


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