Betting News & Analysis

Denver Broncos-Seattle Seahawks — PFF Greenline top picks

Arlington, Texas, USA; Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) in action during the game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Denver Broncos at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Bet Javonte Williams U 2.5 receptions (+120 BetMGM): At plus money, under 2.5 catches has a 17% edge, according to Greenline.

Bet Rashaad Penny O 6.5 receiving yards (-125 BetMGM): PFF Greenline's 11.3% edge is the third-largest on Monday night.

Bet Broncos TE Albert Okwuegbunam U 3.5 receptions (-140 BetMGM): The vig is high, but so is the 11% edge, largely because Albert O has logged at least four catches only four times in his first 18 games.

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Estimated reading time: 2 min


So much for Russ’ revenge?

Three of the four largest edges identified by PFF Greenline NFL in Monday night’s Broncos-Seahawks prime-time clash are Broncos pass catchers going under their reception props. Moreover, six of Greenline’s seven strongest edges are all unders, portending another prime-time game mostly devoid of offensive fireworks.

• For the ultimate in island-game analytical deep dives, readers should start with Ben Brown’s prime-time previews, available before every Thursday-, Sunday- and Monday-nighter this season. Utilizing a combination of PFF’s market-leading betting tools, Brown picked Jerry Jeudy to snag fewer than 4.5 receptions, Rashaad Penny to finish under 15.5 carries and the Broncos and Seahawks to combine for more than 43.5 points, a total FanDuel is nearly alone in still offering.

But for even more recommended PFF plays in Russell Wilson’s return to Seattle, we turn to Greenline.

BET: Javonte Williams UNDER 2.5 receptions (+120 BetMGM)

• Williams snagged at least three grabs in eight of 17 games as a rookie, but he’s part of a deeper Denver pass-catching stable in addition to having an equal-opportunity thrower now in Russell Wilson. At plus money, under 2.5 catches has a 17% edge, according to Greenline.

BET: Rashaad Penny OVER 6.5 receiving yards (-125 BetMGM)

• Penny will get spelled on passing downs, but Seahawks new starter Geno Smith helped multiple backs exceed this yardage total in two of his four starts last season. However, Penny’s 49.5 receiving grade during his breakout 2021 campaign left plenty to be desired.

BET: Albert Okwuegbunam UNDER 3.5 receptions (-140 BetMGM)

• Greenline identifies a nearly 12-percent edge on Albert O to finish below four catches — something he’s done 14 times in 18 career games, most of them sans Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler, both expected on the field in Week 1.

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