Betting News & Analysis

Week 10 College Football Pick: With nasty weather expected, bet Under in Ohio State-Northwestern

Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) passes off the ball to Ohio State Buckeyes running back Miyan Williams (3) during the second quarter of the NCAA Division I football game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Scheller-The Columbus Dispatch Ncaa Football Rutgers Scarlet Knights At Ohio State Buckeyes

Bet Ohio State-Northwestern u55.5: The weather is the impetus for this bet with the forecast calling for 20+ MPH winds and heavy rain.

Regardless of weather, this game screams under: Total in the mid-to-high 50s, the favorite is laying 5 touchdowns and the underdog is capable of limiting big plays, not producing them.

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Last week’s selections ended up with a slight loss after going 1-1. SMU and Tulsa flew over the total, and frankly, betting the under, we never had a chance. The pace of the game, coupled with 20+ yard chunk plays on every single drive, was a recipe for disaster. Two previously top-half defenses got torched throughout.

Tennessee and Kentucky was much more comfortable viewing because, as anticipated, Kentucky got nothing going on offense.

Ohio State @ Northwestern (+38, 55.5)

• A bet on the weather: The main factor for betting under in this game has less to do with the teams and more to do with the weather — 20+ MPH winds throughout with heavy rain also in the forecast. This looks like it is going to be a miserable place to be, and getting off the field quickly will be a priority once this game essentially is over on the scoreboard. The total has moved down from 61.5 to 57.5 already, so we’re getting there a bit late, but the predicted weather should see this total move down even further. 

• Makeup of a perfect under game — regardless of weather: With a total in the mid-to-high 50s, and a team favored by more than five touchdowns over an underdog capable of limiting big plays and incapable of producing them. Ohio State easily has the best offense that Northwestern will have faced this year, with the Buckeyes' big matchup advantage in the passing game: +0.371 EPA per play outside of garbage time over the past four weeks, compared to Northwestern giving up the 11th-highest EPA/play on passing downs under those same stipulations.

• The run game also strongly favors Ohio State: Northwestern has given up negative EPA per rushing down, and on offense, the Wildcats produce -0.199 EPA/play and a 37.1% success rate on rushing downs, ranking 110th in the country. They might not score a point in this game if they have to solely rely on their run game. Ohio State should get out to a lead, producing long, time-consuming, run-heavy drives in, let's say, a 35-0 win. 

Bet: Under 55.5 (-110)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 54.5

Martyn's weekly college betting previews are 8-7 for +0.34 units and a 2.07% ROI. 

For more Week 10 college football best bets, read Martyn's new weekly betting piece, Market Movers.

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