• Bet Kentucky-Tennessee u61.5: Wildcats unlikely to score 24-27 points on one of better run defenses on schedule.
• Wildcats QB Will Levis has 98th-best passing success rate in the country.
• Bet SMU-Tulsa u64.5: It's already been bet down, but still value; both defenses in top half of country in early-down success rate.
Last updated: Oct. 28, 11:00 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
The variance was not on our side last week as Old Dominion (-2.5) lost the game straight up despite out-gaining Georgia Southern by 60 yards. Two missed ODU field goals from less than 25 yards was the real bet killer. Three losing bets in a row is not the way we want to carry on, but this weekly college football preview still holds on to a small advantage with a 7-6 record for +0.4 units and a 2.8% ROI.
SMU @ Tulsa
• A total in the mid-60s is confusing: For two teams that have not been spectacular on offense and middling-to-good on defense. It already has been bet down, but there is still value to the under.
• Great matchup for both defenses on first and second down: Tulsa has one of the worst offensive lines in the country, which never leads to high offensive success, and although SMU does not have a particularly fearsome defense, its 39.9% success rate allowed on early downs is likely to continue here. At 41.4%, Tulsa's not far behind in early-down success rate, placing both in the top half of all defenses in the country.
• Sticking to the theme of success rate on early downs: Tulsa is 84th in the country in offensive success rate (41.6%), and SMU is down at 104th (38.8%). This under holds firm unless there are crazy numbers posted on third down.
Bet Gameplan: play to 62.5
Kentucky @ Tennessee
• Kentucky football does not lend itself to high totals: The Wildcats are a run-heavy offense with a bad offensive line, but they have an incredible defense. And although Tennessee just put up one of the best offensive performances of the season against Alabama, Kentucky has the ability to limit the Vols to a total similar to their victories over Pittsburgh (34) and Florida (38). This total going over largely relies on Kentucky managing to score 24-27 points against one of the better run defenses it will face this season.
• If Tennessee gets out to a lead — which is likely as almost two-TD favorites: Kentucky will be forced to throw the ball more than it has this season. Wildcats QB Will Levis has the 98th-best passing success rate in the country, not boding well for their chances of moving the ball down the field.
Best Bet: Under 61.5 (-110)
Bet Gameplan: play to 61.5