Thursday Night Football Staff Picks: Player props, spread bets and more

• Bet Bucs WR Chris Godwin o6.5 receptions (-114): Working from the slot on 68% of Tampa Bay's snaps this season, Godwin will draw Ravens slot corner Damarion Williams, who has a 37.3 PFF grade.

• Baltimore defense is ranked 21st in expected points added per pass; Godwin has 13-138 receiving from Weeks 6-7, when he commanded 25 combined targets.

• Bet Bucs QB Tom Brady o24.5 completions (-127): He's over this number in five straight this season and 10 in a row at home dating back to 2021; Ravens opponents throwing about 5% more than expected this season.

Last updated: Oct. 27, 2:30 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 3 mins

Here are PFF staff best bets to kick off Week 8 with the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on “Thursday Night Football:”

Ben Brown: Bet Leonard Fournette — Under 13.5 yards longest reception (-125)

Bet gameplan: bet up to -125

• On 38 targets this season, Fournette's average depth of target (aDOT) is -1.4. He doesn't have a single target more than four yards past the line of scrimmage. The Ravens have the NFL's ninth-best coverage unit against running backs.

Tej Seth: Bet Bucs WR Chris Godwin — Over 6.5 receptions (-114)

Bet gameplan: Bet up to -120

• The Ravens' defense ranks 21st in expected points added allowed per pass. Godwin has lined up in the slot on 68% of Tampa Bay's snaps this season. Ravens slot corner Damarion Williams has a 37.3 PFF grade and allows a 74% completion rate when targeted.

Arjun Menon: Bet Bucs QB Tom Brady — Over 24.5 completions (-127)

Bet gameplan: Bet up to 25.5 completions

• The Bucs have the worst rushing offense in the entire NFL, ranking dead-last in EPA/rush and 24th in rushing success rate. Brady's gone over this number in his past 5 games this season and in his past 10 home games overall dating back to last season. Opponents have typically thrown on the Ravens about 5% more than expected so far in 2022, and with Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters both banged-up, look for Brady to attack an exploitable secondary.

Judah Fortgang: Bet Ravens alt spread -19.5 (+1060 FD)

• The Bucs, at this point in time, are a bottom team priced by the market as a top 5 team. They rank toward the bottom of the NFL in most offensive efficiency metrics — 20th in EPA, 25th in Drive Quality, to give a few examples — and there is little reason to suggest the Bucs will simply return to the 2020-2021 levels, given some serious structural issues. The team is dead-last in rush EPA (-0.30) but still insists on running and, as a result of scheme and separation issues, opponents are perfectly covering Tampa on 52% of passing plays. It certainly doesn’t help that Mike Evans is banged-up in this one.

• It's also a mess on defense, where injuries are forcing the Bucs to play their 2nd string secondary unit, and they just allowed 7.5 YPC to D’Onta Foreman and Chubba Hubbard. Meanwhile, the Ravens offense — 9th in EPA — should have its full complement of weapons back, including Gus Edwards, who reinvigorated their run game last week. With the run game working and a traditionally aggressive coaching staff playing from ahead, coupled with Tampa completely incapable of mustering any offense, I think the Ravens utterly dominate in this one.

PFF staff best bets are 65-49 entering Week 8.