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Despite the 2022 offseason nearly being over, with many of the premiere betting opportunities (win totals, outrights) already pounded into place, the books can’t get everything right.
In this article I go through one bet I like for each NFC South team. Enjoy!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-250 to win the division, season win total of 11.5 wins)
Bet to Make: Bucs +750 to win the Super Bowl on BETMGM
We make this more like +600, and while there are some uncertainties about the Bucs — the interior offensive line, Tom Brady’s commitment to playing yet another season — they are the best team in the NFC, a conference that is much weaker than its AFC counterpart. In what could be Brady’s final season, bet into them in fatter-tail markets than season win total or division.
New Orleans Saints (+310, 8.5)
Bet to Make: Dennis Allen to win coach of the year +2500 on betmgm
I wrote about this market here, and while I’m not as high on the Saints in general as some — I think Sean Payton is a pretty big loss — conditioned on them being good, they have all of the characteristics of a team that can support a Coach-of-the-Year winner. Jameis Winston is a good-not-great player at the quarterback position, and the Saints defense is a collection of really, really good players, but no Defensive-Player-of-the-Year candidates. If they improve, say to 10 or 11 wins, it’s an award Allen can win.
Carolina Panthers (+900, 6.5)
Bet to Make: D.J. Moore +2500 to lead the NFL in receiving yards on betmgm
Moore has been a fantastic player through three seasons, despite extremely suspect QB play in Carolina. Baker Mayfield, should he earn the starting role, is probably as good of a player as Moore has had throwing him passes. Furthermore, this is the worst Carolina team — at least by season win total — that he’s played on, meaning the passing volume will be there. Take the longshot on Moore.
Atlanta Falcons (+3500, 5)
Bet to Make: Drake London +650 to lead the NFL rookies in receiving yards on DraftKings
London was the top receiver taken in the 2022 draft, and aside from TE Kyle Pitts, the rookie should not have any competition for targets from Marcus Mariota in 2022. Although Arthur Smith's offense will involve a decent amount of running the ball, the fact that the Falcons could be one of the worst teams in the NFL means they will have to drop back more than intuition would suggest. Plus, this is a better bet to make than any -110 prop on London because of his injury history. Make the payoff higher should he stay healthy the whole year.