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Estimated reading time: 2 mins
Ben Brown: Chiefs-Bucs o46.5 (-110)
PFF Greenline shows 1.5% value on over 46.5 — and the PFF play-by-play simulation offers a similar outlook for this game cruising over its total. Scoring and QB play both are down from prior season league-wide averages, but if two of the very best offenses and quarterbacks can’t put up 47 points in ideal conditions, there's most likely a greater league-wide adjustment needed to betting models. I’m willing to back overs one more time in this spot before declaring defeat on the season.
Judah Fortgang: Chiefs alt line -7.5 (+280 FanDuel)
· Perhaps the Bucs ‘D' has contributed to the poor offensive start for their opponents, but the Cowboys, Saints and Packers so far rank 20th, 24th and 26th in drive quality, and 14th, 25th and 31st in EPA, respectively. Tampa Bay's defense has yet to face an above-average offense — and certainly not an elite one like the Chiefs.
· The thesis of this bet is not overly complex: The market is pricing these two teams for their past production, and while the Chiefs have remained elite so far in 2022, the Bucs have taken a huge step back on offense. There is little data to suggest it is simply noise and they will right the ship.
Kurt Blakeway: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce anytime TD (+100 DraftKings)
· In the red zone, Patrick Mahomes locks on Kelce. So far in 2022, Kelce has seven targets in the red zone — second among NFL tight ends and five more than any other Chiefs player.
· Using our TE Matchup tool, Kelce has the second-best matchup of Week 4. Kelce should see a lot of Devin White, who has posted a PFF defensive grade of 53.4 and a coverage grade of 63.