Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 4 Best Bets — Late Sunday

Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

· Bet Broncos +2.5 at Raiders (-110): With both offenses slow to find footing, Broncos legit ‘D' will make the difference Sunday in Vegas.

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Estimated reading time: 2 mins


Here are PFF staff best bets in the late-Sunday window in Week 4:

Sam Monson: Denver Broncos +2.5 at Las Vegas Raiders

· There's something rotten at the core of both offenses in the Broncos-Raiders game. Maybe at least one of them gets right Sunday, but if they don't, the edge is the Broncos defense — a legit unit that could easily make the difference in the game. Denver's offense has struggled, and yet the team has still won games because its defense keeps things close. That won't change here.

Tommy Jurgens: Green Bay Packers -9.5 vs. New England Patriots

· Until further notice, the Packers at home remains a layup bet. It seems that oddsmakers have struggled to accurately quantify the Packers' advantage at Lambeau in recent years. Green Bay has gone 18-7 ATS in regular-season home games since Matt Lafleur became their head coach in 2019. Green Bay currently is riding an 8-1 ATS heater at home dating back to the start of the 2021 season.

Mike Renner: Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers o0.5 INTs (+220) vs. Patriots

Rodgers has been the single most risk-averse quarterback in NFL history. Betting over interception props for him throughout his career would be a fool’s errand. That being said, he playing with easily the worst receiving corps he’s dealt with in his career. Because of that, his turnover-worthy play rate has jumped significantly over his MVP campaign, and he’s already had two games with an interception.

Below you can see the only times Rodgers has had comparable turnover-worthy play rates throughout his career:

Year TWP Rate Interceptions Games
2022 2.90% 2 3
2017 3.30% 6 7
2010 3.30% 11 15
2008 2.90% 13 16

That paints a completely different picture than the guy we’ve seen throw nine total interceptions the past two seasons. With the odds so juiced to two times your money, this one is worth dabbling on.

PFF Greenline top play: Carolina Panthers TE Tommy Tremble o3.5 receiving yards (-120) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Tremble has run a route on all 23 of his combined snaps over the past two weeks, cleaning this number in one of the past two games and 12 of his first 16 career games. Arizona has allowed a league-high 100 receiving yards to tight ends. Tremble might only command 1-2 targets and come away with one catch, but it's likely to be for at least four yards.

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