Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 3 TNF: Staff Best Bets

Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) riles up the crowd during the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.

Estimated reading time: 2 mins


Week 3 kicks off Thursday night with an AFC North battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns. Here are the PFF staff best bets:

Eric Eager: Browns QB Jacoby Brissett vs. Steelers U 26.5 pass attempts (-105 BetMGM):

• The weather is going to suck Thursday night, and I think Cleveland leans even more on Nick Chubb than usual.  Brissett also is a bit banged up, so there's a nonzero chance he doesn't finish the game, too.

Tej Seth: Brissett Longest Completion Under 31.5 yards vs. Steelers (-110 DraftKings; playable to 30.5)

In 59.1% of his NFL starts, Brissett’s longest completion of the game is under 31.5 yards. His median longest completion in those 39 career starts is 27 yards.

Judah Fortgang: Browns O 20.5 points (-112 FanDuel)

• The Browns offense has quietly gotten off to a great start in 2022, with the NFL's sixth best offensive drive quality. Though it might regress over the course of season, against a Steelers ‘D' missing T.J. Watt, Cleveland's offense will keep rolling in this spot.

Arjun Menon: Browns RB Kareem Hunt O 15.5 receiving yards (-113 FanDuel)

• In windy conditions, both teams can be expected not to throw the ball very deep, which means Hunt should be a benefactor in the passing game. He's hit this number in both of his first 2 games, and so far in 2022, the Steelers have given up 116 receiving yards to running backs (third most in NFL), including 63 to Joe Mixon and 16 to Damien Harris.

Richard Janvrin: Browns RB Nick Chubb anytime TD (-105 DraftKings)

• Sitting at only -105 on DK — it’s as high as -190 at other shops — this is a “run to the sports book” type of wager. The Steelers' primary coverage concern is WR Amari Cooper, with Cleveland devoid of additional receiving threats that aren’t coming out of the backfield. The total is only 38.5, so this will be a slow-moving, points-hard-to-come-by showdown. Chubb should receive 20+ touches easily and is the most logical player to look to for a score.

Betting Featured Tools

  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

    Available with

Subscriptions

Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS.

$9.99 / mo
$79.99 / yr