• BET Browns RB Nick Chubb anytime TD (-105 DraftKings): With major odds disparities abound, a “run-to-the-book” bet.
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Estimated reading time: 2 mins
Thus, we have some great odds on the most likely anytime TD contenders, but from there, we’ll try to make some good-intentioned dart throws that could pay huge dividends.
Let's see if we can build on our debut TD prop piece in Week 2, when we won more than 14 units.
BET Browns RB Nick Chubb anytime TD (-105 DraftKings)
• Chubb On The Run: Sitting at only -105 on DK — it’s as high as -190 at other shops — this is a “run to the sports book” type of wager. The Steelers' primary coverage concern is WR Amari Cooper, with Cleveland devoid of additional receiving threats that aren’t coming out of the backfield. The total is only 38.5, so this will be a slow-moving, points-hard-to-come-by showdown. Chubb should receive 20+ touches easily and is the most logical player to look to for a score.
BET: Steelers WR George Pickens anytime TD (+550 ON DK)
• Pickens Wins Deep?: OK, here we go, Hail Mary (perhaps literally) time. Rookie George Pickens has only six targets on the year, including one reception in each game. Interestingly, BetMGM has Pickens at -125 to go over 2.5 receptions. This could bode well for a receiver whose average depth of target is north of 21 yards. He should see plenty of Browns CB Denzel Ward in this game, but Ward has been less-than-stellar, with a 45.0 coverage grade and more than 23 yards allowed per reception. Can Pickens take one deep? There’s a chance.
BET: Steelers D/ST anytime TD (+800 ON DK)
• Steelers D/ST Must Help the Offense: Indeed, with a total at 38.5, not many points are likely to be scored. But this total, coupled with the Steelers being close to five-point road underdogs, they’ve got to score some way, right? Browns QB Jacoby Brissett is averaging 35 attempts per game. Yes, this game could be pretty different, but he’ll have to throw it at some point. The primary concern of these cornerbacks and S Minkah Fitzpatrick is Cooper. So, is there a chance Brissett tries to force one in and suffers the consequences? He has three turnover-worthy plays this year — it’s a possibility.