NFL Week 18 Playoff Picture: It's win or go home for the Texans, Colts, Buccaneers

• Win or go home: The Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will secure a playoff berth with a Week 18 win, but they will be eliminated from contention with a loss.

• A huge week for the Green Bay Packers: The Green Bay Packers will secure a playoff spot with a Week 18 win against the Chicago Bears, but their chances will fall to just 17% with a loss.

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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

The current situation ahead of Week 18

Current AFC playoff standings

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-3)
2. Miami Dolphins (11-5)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7)
5. Cleveland Browns (11-5)
6. Buffalo Bills (10-6)
7. Indianapolis Colts (9-7)

Current NFC playoff standings

1. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
2. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
3. Detroit Lions (11-5)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
6. Los Angeles Rams (9-7)
7. Green Bay Packers (8-8)

The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.

AFC PLAYOFF CHANCES

NFC PLAYOFF CHANCES

TEAMS WITH THE MOST AT STAKE IN WEEK 18

Playoff scenarios

Playoff matchups

As of now, the following wild-card matchups are most likely to happen:

• Rams at Lions (60%)
• Browns at Jaguars (56%)
• Dolphins at Chiefs (55%)
• Eagles at Buccaneers (53%)
• Packers at Lions (38%)
• Rams at Cowboys (33%)

Looking further ahead, these are the most likely matchups to happen at any point in the playoffs after the wild-card games:

• Rams at 49ers (39%)
• Bills at Ravens (38%)
• Eagles at 49ers (35%)
• Dolphins at Ravens (33%)
• Lions – Cowboys (32%)
• Cowboys – 49ers (30%)

Two wild cards for the same division

With the introduction of the seventh playoff seed, we've become accustomed to seeing three playoff teams from the same division. This has happened every year since 2020, when the playoffs were extended.

Looking ahead to draft season

There are a few teams whose playoff chances are already bleak. But don’t fret — there is always the offseason and, most importantly, the draft.

The Chicago Bears have already clinched the first overall pick via the Carolina Panthers.

Here are the chances to select inside the top five:

• Chicago Bears (via Panthers): 100%
• New England Patriots: 100%
• Washington Commanders: 100%
• New York Giants: 73%
• Arizona Cardinals (own pick): 68%
• Los Angeles Chargers: 40%
• Tennessee Titans: 17%