• Bet Browns QB Deshaun Watson anytime TD at Texans (+205): Rust is a real possibility as a passer, which theoretically could mean more scrambling.
• Watson averaging 90.3 rushes over his past three starting seasons and has 17 career rushing touchdowns, albeit the most recent 726 days ago.
• Bet Bengals WR Tee Higgins anytime TD vs Chiefs (+115): With or without Ja'Marr Chase, Higgins a scoring threat — especially lined up across from Chiefs rookie Josh Williams (67.2 coverage grade).
Last updated: Dec. 2, 10: 50 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 min
We’ve hit the homestretch of the NFL season in Week 13 — when there are four games with totals of 47 or more, so we hopefully should have some high-scoring affairs.
Thankfully for us, we’re looking at anytime TD props, which tend to correlate quite well to high totals.
Let’s dive in.
Bet: Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce anytime TD @ Cincinnati Bengals (-130)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -135
• It’s Travis Kelce: Getting a -130 price is still a great bet because, well, it’s Kelce. He’s scored five times over the past three games, has over 100 targets on the season, and is the No. 1 option for a quarterback averaging over 325 passing yards per game. Our TE Matchup tool for fantasy football gives Kelce a 43% advantage against Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson. The total in this game is 52.5 — touchdowns will be scored, and Kelce will get at least one.
Bet Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson anytime TD @ Houston Texans (+205)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +190
• Rust = Rush: Watson hasn’t played in a regular-season NFL game since Week 17 of the 2020 season. With that, there’s bound to be some rust in passing the ball, timing, and perhaps even some mechanics. This could lead to Watson scrambling more and Kevin Stefanski building the offense around running the ball, utilizing Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and Watson. Watson has at least 82 rushing attempts over his past three seasons. And yeah, this one is against the Texans, his former team.
Bet Cincinnati Bengals WR Tee Higgins anytime TD vs Kansas City Chiefs (+115)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +110
• Chase Beat Up And Good Matchup?: Fellow wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase still is dinged-up heading into this game as he battles a hip injury. He got in a limited practice on Thursday, so he should play, but who knows if he’ll play a typical snap count. Either way, Higgins will benefit from a great matchup when the Chiefs play nickel or dime. When this happens, rising star CB1 L'Jarius Sneed (406 slot snaps) goes from outside to the slot, leaving Higgins matched up against rookie Joshua Williams (67.2 coverage grade).
Bet: Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields vs Green Bay Packers (odds pending)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to
• Packers Have Failed Against the Run: The streak of Fields rushing touchdowns is now five games. This week, he gets a Packers defense that just gave up 150+ rushing yards on the ground to Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. Oh yeah, they Packers are allowing 200+ yards rushing per game over their past three contests. Fields has double-digit designed runs in three of his past five games — the Packers may be favored, but they’re not slowing him down.
Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars RB Travis Etienne @ Detroit Lions (-135
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -135
• Yeah, It’s The Lions: In Week 12, Etienne left the game against the Ravens with a foot injury, but he's put in some limited practices this week. Insisting that he’ll play, Etienne has a cupcake matchup at Ford Field against the Lions, who allow a staggering 1.6 rushing touchdowns and over 154 rushing yards per game. Etienne had back-to-back games (Week 8 and 9) with 24+ carries, so getting the workload in a game where the score should be close (the spread is -1) shouldn’t be an issue unless he tweaks his injury.
Richard's anytime TD bets are 30-50 (-1 unit)