NFL Turnover Luck: The unluckiest defenses of the last decade

• San Francisco has left turnovers on the field: The 49ers converted 208 of 345 turnover opportunities since 2016, producing a 60% overall takeaway conversion rate.

• Washington could benefit from regression in 2026: The Commanders recovered only one of nine forced fumbles and squandered four of 12 interception opportunities last season.

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Interceptions are often treated as a straightforward measure of quarterback performance, but the stat reflects more than the quarterback alone. The ball first has to be put in a position where it can be intercepted, and the defense then has to finish the play.

Across every pass PFF charted from 2016 through 2025, just 49.09% of turnover-worthy throws resulted in an interception. In other words, more than half of the throws that put the ball in harm’s way never appeared in the interception column. That gap illustrates just how much can happen between a quarterback creating a turnover opportunity and a defense actually converting it.

PFF tracks part of that gap through dropped interceptions, identifying plays on which a defender gets into position to make a play on the ball but fails to secure the catch or complete the interception in bounds.

Skill is undoubtedly involved here. Some defensive backs have better hands than others, and not every interception presents the same degree of difficulty. Still, dropped interceptions can help identify defenses whose work in coverage created takeaway opportunities that were never reflected in the box score.

Combining those two areas gives us a clearer picture of which defenses have benefited most from turnover luck and which have continually watched opportunities go to waste.

The 2025 New York Jets made the wrong kind of history