The Houston Texans travel to Foxborough, Mass., to face the New England Patriots on Sunday, Jan. 18, with kickoff set for 3:00 pm ET on ESPN.
Below, we break down the spread, moneyline and total using PFF's market data, compare the two starting quarterbacks through stable efficiency metrics and highlight the team-level advantages that could swing this game.
This preview also dives into notable injuries, trench mismatches and unit-level grades that matter most on Sunday, with all data powered by PFF Premium Stats and betting projections.
To unlock full betting insights, advanced team metrics and player grades for this matchup — and every game on the slate — use promo code HOLIDAY30 to take 30% off a PFF subscription and get the tools bettors and fans rely on to stay ahead of the market.
Click here to see PFF's data-backed bets for this game
Team Metrics
| Texans | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Power Rank: Overall | 4th | 6th |
| Power Rank: Defense | 1st | 8th |
| Power Rank: Offense | 17th | 3rd |
| SOS Played | 18th | 32nd |
| Avg Offensive Snaps | 69.1 | 65.4 |
| % Run Plays | 40.3% | 40.2% |
| % Pass Plays | 59.7% | 59.8% |
| EPA Per Run | -0.14 | -0.12 |
| EPA Per Pass | 0.06 | 0.26 |
QB Comparison
| Texans | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | C. Stroud | D. Maye |
| PFF Grade | 71.9 | 89.6 |
| Passer Rating Clean | 107.7 | 119.9 |
| Passer Rating Under Pressure | 60.9 | 93.4 |
| Big-Time Throw % | 3.29% | 3.99% |
| Turnover-Worthy Play % | 3.11% | 2.81% |
| Power Rating | 3.5 | 5.5 |
| Power Rating Rank | 12th | 5th |
Key Injuries: Texans
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Grade | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Collins | WR | Head | Q | 85.9 | 13th |
| J. Jordan | HB | Leg | Q | 79.2 | 75th |
| J. Hansen | LB | Torso | IR | 77.1 | 79th |
| T. Settle | DI | Leg | IR | 71.3 | 36th |
| J. Smith | CB | Other | IR | 68.7 | 136th |
| J. Watson | WR | Head | Q | 55.7 | 236th |
| F. Fatukasi | DI | Arm | IR | 49.9 | 142nd |
Key Injuries: Patriots
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Grade | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Gonzalez | CB | Head | Q | 67.9 | 24th |
| M. Hollins | WR | Torso | IR | 67.5 | 73rd |
| K. Tonga | DI | Leg | Q | 67.2 | 55th |
| T. Jennings | HB | Head | IR | 65.2 | 90th |
| A. Gibson | HB | Leg | IR | 55.1 | 129th |
| J. Farmer | DI | Leg | IR | 49.0 | 139th |
| C. Reynolds | HB | Other | OUT | 48.3 | 122nd |
Betting insights: Spread
| Spread | Texans | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Market | +3 (-110) | -3 (-110) |
| PFF Projection | +1.4 | -1.4 |
| Implied Cover Probability | 53.2% | 39.9% |
| Break Even | 48.8% | 48.8% |
| Value | 4.4% | -8.9% |
| $$$% | — | — |
| Bets% | — | — |
Betting insights: Moneyline
| Moneyline | Texans | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Market | +144 | -173 |
| PFF Projection | +104 | -103 |
| Implied Win Probability | 49.1% | 50.8% |
| Break Even | 40.9% | 63.3% |
| Value | 8.2% | -12.5% |
| $$$% | — | — |
| Bets% | — | — |
Betting insights: Total
| Total | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| Market | 41 (-110) | 41 (-110) |
| PFF Projection | 41.5 | 41.5 |
| Implied Cover Probability | 45.2% | 47.7% |
| Break Even | 48.7% | 48.7% |
| Value | -3.4% | -1.0% |
| $$$% | — | — |
| Bets% | — | — |
© 2026 PFF - all rights reserved.