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NFL teams set to lose the most, least value to 2023 free agency

Glendale, Arizona, USA; Detailed view of the jersey of Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) as he walks off the field following the game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

With just eight teams still vying for Super Bowl glory down the homestretch of the 2022 NFL season, we wanted to start taking a look at who has the most roster construction work ahead of them this offseason. 

Some teams, such as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, pushed their chips all in for 2022 and now have a ton of contributors to replace going forward on both sides of the ball, most importantly dealing with the expected loss of quarterback Tom Brady. Other contenders, such as the Kansas City Chiefs, smartly had a 2022 offseason of contraction — most notably, trading away wide receiver Tyreek Hill — and now have the ability to add more firepower around quarterback Patrick Mahomes or on the defensive side of the ball. Finally, we have teams like the Chicago Bears, who had more snaps from rookies in 2022 than any other team and now have the most cap space in the NFL in 2023 by a wide margin, plus the No. 1 overall pick. 

Below, we have each team’s total snaps played by pending free agents on the x-axis. On the y-axis, we’ve converted the PFF wins above replacement each individual player accumulated over the past two seasons into an average per year valuation. For example, if we project that a player will sign a free-agent deal worth $20 million per year, that dollar amount would be incorporated into the below chart. This isn’t about salary cap space or available cash budget, but rather a way to illustrate each pending free agent’s value while incorporating positional value and the cost to replace the player — as determined by the league-wide market — into those losses. 

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