NFL playoff picture ahead of Week 11

• A huge week for the Jacksonville Jaguars: According to PFF simulations, the Jaguars have a 60% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 11 win, but that number drops to 25% with a loss.

• With the first overall pick, the New Orleans Saints select: The Saints have a 30% of picking first overall in 2026, according to PFF simulations.

• Unlock your edge with PFF+: Access Premium Stats, dominate fantasy with in-season tools and projections and make smarter bets with the new PFF Player Prop Tool.

The current situation

Current AFC playoff standings

1. Indianapolis Colts (8-2)
2. Denver Broncos (8-2)
3. New England Patriots (8-2)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)
6. Buffalo Bills (6-3)
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)

Current NFC playoff standings

1. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)
2. Seattle Seahawks (7-2)
3. Detroit Lions (6-3)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
5. Los Angeles Rams (7-2)
6. Chicago Bears (6-3)
7. Green Bay Packers (5-2-1)

The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts display the projected playoff chances for each team, along with the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or a loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.