- Chiefs and 49ers lead their conferences: Kansas City leads the AFC, while San Francisco leads the NFC.
- Denver faces the biggest playoff leverage of Week 5: The Broncos‘ projected playoff chances rise to 71.6% with a win but fall to 42.2% with a loss, while the 49ers become a near lock with a victory.
- Miami is trending toward the top of the 2027 NFL Draft: The Dolphins have a 39.5% chance to land the No. 1 overall pick and an 85.7% chance to select inside the top five.
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The NFL playoff picture is taking shape, but the current standings tell only part of the story.
With another week of games capable of shifting the postseason outlook in both conferences, PFF’s playoff model highlights each team’s chances of reaching the playoffs, the games carrying the most leverage and the teams best positioned to secure the No. 1 seed.
At the other end of the standings, the focus is already shifting toward the 2027 NFL Draft.
NFL standings ahead of Week 5
The projections
Naturally, the playoff picture is unlikely to remain constant for the rest of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.
The following charts display the projected playoff chances for each team, along with the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or a loss.
The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.
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