PFF Grades and Data: Key insights for every NFL Week 3 game

The Bills defense has struggled against the run: Dating back to last season, Buffalo has allowed 4.7 yards per carry, tied for 27th in the league. They also boast a league-worst 17.0% explosive run rate (rushes of 10 or more yards).

The dramatic turnaround of the Falcons’ pass rush: A year ago, Atlanta ranked near the bottom of the league with a 28% pressure rate (30th). But through two weeks this season, that number has skyrocketed to 46%, third-best in the NFL.

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NFL Week 3 is here, and with it comes a fresh wave of advanced data and analysis.

PFF’s media research team has been hard at work this week, preparing for kickoff — pulling data-driven insights and talking points for our broadcast partners around the league. Now, we’re sharing those same nuggets with you. So, whether you’re looking to win your fantasy matchup, hit on your bets or just get smarter about the game, these are the key storylines to know for every Week 3 contest.

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

The Bills’ struggles against the run didn’t begin with the tough Week 1 matchup against Baltimore's Derrick Henry. Dating back to last season, Buffalo has allowed 4.7 yards per carry, tied for 27th in the league. They also boast a league-worst 17.0% explosive run rate (rushes of 10 or more yards). That will be tested again by De'Von Achane, whose 25 runs of 15 or more yards since 2023 rank tied for fifth among all running backs.

Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa’s trademark accuracy over the middle — a cornerstone of Mike McDaniel’s offense — has yet to click this season. Through two games, Tua ranks 29th out of 32 quarterbacks in accuracy rate on throws over the middle (58.6%). So far, 17.2% of those attempts have been charted as uncatchable, the seventh-highest mark in the league.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

One of the biggest early storylines of 2025 has been the dramatic turnaround of the Falcons’ pass rush. A year ago, Atlanta ranked near the bottom of the league with a 28% pressure rate (30th). But through two weeks this season, that number has skyrocketed to 46%, third-best in the NFL. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich has sparked the surge by dialing up the aggression: the Falcons are blitzing on 46% of dropbacks (sixth-most) and using pass stunts on 37% of rushes (fifth-most).

Meanwhile, the Panthers have moved in the opposite direction. After leaning on play action on 25% of dropbacks last season (18th in the NFL), Dave Canales has nearly abandoned it in 2025, using it on just 10% of dropbacks, the lowest rate in the league.

Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns

Micah Parsons has wasted no time making an impact in Green Bay, leading the team with a 25% pass-rush win rate and standing as one of just two Packers defenders with double-digit pressures. His presence has supercharged the blitz, with the Packers generating a staggering 70% pressure rate and a 50% QB knockdown rate on blitzes when Parsons is on the field. That’s bad news for Joe Flacco, who has just a 35.9 passer rating against the blitz this year, last among qualifying quarterbacks.

Myles Garrett is also off to a strong start, recording back-to-back multi-sack games as he eyes an eighth consecutive double-digit sack season. But he’ll face a tough challenge against a Packers offensive line that hasn’t allowed a sack through two weeks despite dealing with injuries. Rookie right tackle Anthony Belton held up well in his Week 2 debut, allowing zero pressures on 25 pass-blocking snaps, while left guard Jordan Morgan has posted a 72.0 pass-blocking grade, eighth-best among guards.

Adding to Garrett’s challenge is how difficult Jordan Love is to bring down. Since the start of 2024, Love has taken a sack on just 9% of pressured dropbacks, the second-best rate in the league behind only Josh Allen.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

C.J. Stroud has historically found success attacking the Jaguars vertically, posting a 121.2 passer rating and completing 57% of his throws on attempts of 10-plus yards downfield against Jacksonville.

But this year’s Jaguars defense is a different story. Through two weeks, they’ve allowed the second-lowest overall passer rating (65.2) and just a 51.3 rating on passes 10-plus yards, fourth-best in the NFL.

A key driver of that defensive surge has been the elite coverage play from Jacksonville’s linebackers. Devin Lloyd leads all players at the position with a 91.9 PFF coverage grade, while Foyesade Oluokun ranks fourth at 90.4.

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings

If there’s a week for Cincinnati to finally ignite its ground game, this matchup with Minnesota presents the perfect opportunity.

The Bengals rank 30th in explosive run play rate (2.7%) and are averaging -0.2 yards before contact per carry, one of the worst marks in the league.

Minnesota’s defense, on the other hand, is giving up 1.5 yards before contact per attempt (sixth-highest) and has allowed a 10-plus-yard run on 19% of carries, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Through two games, DK Metcalf has been deployed in an unusually shallow role for Pittsburgh. His 5.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT) ranks second-lowest among wide receivers with at least 10 targets, and he has yet to see a single deep target — just the second time in his career he's gone back-to-back games without one. That usage stands in stark contrast to his career résumé: 65 receptions and 20 touchdowns on 167 deep targets (20-plus yards).

That may need to shift this week, as the Patriots’ defense has shown vulnerability downfield. Opponents have attempted deep passes on 18.2% of dropbacks — tied for the fourth-highest rate in the NFL — and New England has already surrendered 230 passing yards on throws of 20-plus yards, the second-most in the league.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Through two weeks, Matthew Stafford has silenced any lingering concerns about his health, entering Week 3 as PFF’s highest-graded quarterback (91.8). His seven big-time throws are tied for the most in the league, aided by a notable shift in Sean McVay’s offense. Stafford has executed 13 designed rollouts (second-most in the NFL), helping him find cleaner throwing windows and limit dropback wear.

On the other side of the ball, the Rams face a tough test in Saquon Barkley, who logged his two highest rushing totals of 2024 against Chris Shula’s defense. Barkley has thrived regardless of box count, averaging 12.3 yards per carry against stacked boxes (eight-plus defenders) and 5.7 yards per carry against light boxes (six or fewer). Containing him will require a more disciplined approach from Los Angeles in Week 3.

New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Under new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, the Jets have dramatically shifted their ground game philosophy, calling inside zone on 37% of their run plays — up from just 16% in 2024, when they ranked 25th in usage.

They’ll be tested against Todd Bowles’ disciplined run defense, which has allowed just 2.6 yards per designed rush attempt through two games (tied for third-lowest). Against inside zone specifically, the Bucs have surrendered just 3.1 yards per attempt and zero explosive runs of 10-plus yards.

On the other side, Baker Mayfield continues to thrive in late-game moments. His Week 2 comeback lifted Tampa Bay to 2-0, and since joining the Bucs, he leads the league in both fourth-quarter/overtime passing yards (2,567) and touchdowns (22), while ranking third in PFF grade in those critical situations.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Through two weeks, Jonathan Taylor has been one of the league’s most physical runners. He leads all running backs in yards after contact (176), including 135 against Denver in Week 2, the third-highest single-game total after contact in his career and his best since 2021.

The challenge ramps up for Tennessee, a team that saw Taylor at his peak late last season. In their Week 16 matchup in 2024, Taylor gashed the Titans for 218 rushing yards, the second-highest total of his career.

So far in 2025, Tennessee hasn’t shown signs of improvement. They rank last in the league in yards allowed after contact on designed runs at 4.3 yards per carry, leaving the door wide open for Taylor to do more damage.

Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders

The Raiders’ defense has opened 2025 with a clear identity: stop the run by loading the box. Las Vegas has stacked eight or more defenders on 34% of defensive snaps, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL.

The strategy is paying off. The Raiders rank fourth in both yards allowed before contact (0.4 per attempt) and yards allowed after contact (2.2 per attempt), making them the only team currently sitting inside the top five in both categories.

Under Dan Quinn, the Commanders’ defense has focused on disruption by collapsing the pocket quickly. Through two weeks, Washington owns a 27% quick-pressure rate (within 2.5 seconds), the seventh-best mark in the league. They’ve also been effective at scheming free rushers, with an unblocked pressure rate of 16%, ranking third in the NFL.

That ability to generate pressure without relying solely on one-on-one wins gives Washington a path to slowing down the Raiders’ passing attack.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Troy Franklin is quickly emerging as a key piece of Denver’s offense. Through two weeks, he leads all Broncos receivers in yards per route run (2.38), a mark that ranks 12th among NFL wideouts with at least 25 pass-play snaps.

But Franklin and the Broncos face a major test this week against one of the NFL’s stingiest pass defenses. Jesse Minter’s Chargers have allowed a league-low 61.9 passer rating through two games, thanks in large part to eliminating explosive plays. They’ve surrendered completions of 15 or more yards on just 7% of pass attempts, the third-best rate in the NFL.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

The Saints' pass rush has struggled to make an impact in 2025. Their 22.2% pressure rate ranks 30th in the NFL — ahead of only the Bears and Colts. However, when they do generate pressure, they make it count: New Orleans has converted 44.4% of pressures into sacks, 11% higher than the next closest team (Patriots).

On the other side, Sam Darnold has quietly been one of the league’s better quarterbacks when kept clean, posting a 108.6 passer rating over the past two seasons, 10th in the NFL. He’s also held up reasonably well under pressure, with an 85.4 passer rating that ranks fourth during that span, though he’s taken 51 sacks since the start of 2024, the sixth-most in the league.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears

One area where Caleb Williams still needs to improve is his accuracy when targeting open receivers. Last year, his 63.0% accuracy rate on such throws ranked fourth-lowest among quarterbacks, and that figure has dipped further to 58.0% through two weeks, third-worst in the league.

If he can become more consistent in this area, big plays should follow, especially considering his 7.3 average depth of target to open receivers ranks third among quarterbacks. That’s particularly relevant against a Cowboys secondary that has allowed an open target on 73% of pass attempts this season, the highest rate in the NFL.

On the other side, CeeDee Lamb is off to a hot start, posting back-to-back 100-yard games. Most of his damage has come outside the numbers, where he’s tallied 11 catches for 186 yards and eight conversions — all second-most in the league.

By contrast, he’s been far less productive over the middle with just five catches for 36 yards. That could change this week against a Bears defense that has been far more vulnerable inside the numbers, allowing a league-high 16.3 yards per reception in that area, compared to just 10.2 yards per reception on the outside.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

The return of a healthy Christian McCaffrey has given the 49ers a much-needed reliable option in the passing game. Last season, 49ers running backs were targeted on just 13% of passing plays, generating -0.13 EPA per play (25th). This year, those numbers have jumped significantly to a 27% target rate and 0.44 EPA per play, the sixth-best mark in the league.

McCaffrey leads the team with 17 targets through two games, and his track record against the Cardinals is strong, totaling 143 receiving yards and 10 first-down conversions since joining San Francisco — his most against any opponent.

For Arizona, the tight ends have become the focal point of the passing attack. Star tight end Trey McBride and backup Elijah Higgins have combined for 197 yards and 11 first-down conversions on a 30% target rate, all league-leading marks for the position group. They’ve also been dangerous after the catch, ranking second among teams with 101 total yards after the catch.

That said, San Francisco’s defense has done well limiting tight ends, allowing just 56 yards through two games in 2025 and 9.1 yards per catch last season, both ranking seventh-best in the league.

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants

Russell Wilson delivered a vintage deep passing performance in Week 2 against the Cowboys, completing 7-of-11 attempts for 264 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception on throws of 20+ yards. His totals for completions, yardage, and touchdowns on deep passes either tie or surpass the highest marks by any quarterback in a single game since 2020. He’ll face a tougher test in Week 3 against a Chiefs secondary that has allowed just one completion on eight deep attempts this season, with defenders forcing three incompletions.

On the other side, Patrick Mahomes’ mobility has been a key factor amid a slow start for the Chiefs’ run game. Mahomes leads all quarterbacks with 13 scrambles for 123 yards, 10 first-down conversions, and seven explosive runs of 10-plus yards. By contrast, Kansas City’s running backs have combined for only 96 yards, seven conversions and two explosive runs on 29 carries. They’ll look to bounce back against a Giants defense that ranks bottom-three in both yards per carry (5.6) and explosive runs allowed (9) through two games.

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens

Since 2024, the Lions have run outside zone on 45.5% of rushing plays — only the 49ers and Falcons do it more. They’ve also posted one of the highest yards-per-attempt average on those runs (5.2), second only to Baltimore. This week, they draw those very Ravens, who have held opponents to just 3.7 YPA on outside zone runs since 2024, seventh-best in the NFL.

Stopping Derrick Henry is a tall order. Over the past two seasons, he’s led the league in yards after contact (1,272), and his 83 missed tackles forced ranks second behind Bijan Robinson. Meanwhile, Detroit’s defense has limited opposing rushers to just 2.7 yards after contact, which is top‑five league‑wide for that span.