PFF Grades and Data: Key insights for the Week 14 NFL games

George Pickens continues his career year: Pickens' 18 contested catches are tied for the most in the NFL, and his 19 missed tackles forced lead all wide receivers.

The Bears will hope to build: The Bears' run game shone in their Black Friday win over the Eagles, totaling 281 rushing yards — 109 more than any other offense has recorded against Vic Fangio’s defense this season. Chicago produced six explosive runs in the game, bringing its season total to a league-leading 54. The Bears now face a Packers defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest explosive runs (25).

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NFL Week 14 is here, and with it comes a fresh wave of advanced data and analysis.

PFF’s media research team has been hard at work this week, preparing for kickoff — pulling data-driven insights and talking points for our broadcast partners around the league. Now, we’re sharing those same nuggets with you. So, whether you’re looking to win your fantasy matchup, hit on your bets or just get smarter about the game, these are the key storylines to know for every Week 14 contest.

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Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions

Thursday Night Football will showcase two of the league’s most dynamic wide receivers this season. For Dallas, George Pickens has been playing at an elite level in his first year with the Cowboys. His 18 contested catches are tied for the most in the NFL, and his 19 missed tackles forced lead all wide receivers.

On the other side, Jameson Williams is coming off the best game of his young career in Week 13 against Green Bay, posting career highs in receiving yards (144), yards after the catch (86) and missed tackles forced (4).

Now in his fourth season, Williams has become a far more explosive threat with the ball in his hands. He has already set single-season highs in missed tackles forced (10) and yards after contact (138), and his 8.8 YAC per reception is the best mark of his career. His improved ability to create after the catch has added a dangerous new dimension to Detroit’s passing attack.

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons

The Seahawks’ defensive front is operating at a high level this season, and their use of stunts has been a major problem for opposing offenses. Seattle employs pass-rush stunts on 40% of snaps — the second-highest rate in the NFL behind the Rams — but no team has been more productive with them. The Seahawks have generated 31 sacks on stunts, far ahead of the next-closest team (Patriots, with 21).

This could spell trouble for the Falcons, whose offensive line has had difficulty picking up movement up front. Atlanta has allowed the seventh-highest pressure rate versus stunts (45%) this season.

Those pressure concerns are magnified by Kirk Cousins’ recent performance under duress. Since returning to the lineup in Week 11, Cousins has completed just 28% of his passes under pressure, tied for the lowest mark among all quarterbacks. He has been far more effective from a clean pocket, posting a 73% completion rate in those situations, the ninth-highest in the league over that span.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Zach Frazier has quickly become a stabilizing force along the Pittsburgh offensive line since being selected in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. He has allowed just one sack in his professional career and currently owns the longest active streak of pass-blocking snaps without surrendering a sack among all centers. Dating back to Week 12 of the 2024 season, Frazier has logged 622 consecutive pass-blocking snaps without giving up a sack.

In his last meeting with the Steelers, Derrick Henry dominated on the ground in the 2024 wild-card matchup. His 186 rushing yards in that game were the second-most he has recorded since joining the Ravens, and his 142 yards after contact remain his highest single-game mark in a Baltimore uniform.

Including postseason play, Henry has amassed 1,985 yards after contact since the start of the 2024 season, the most of any player over that span. His ability to generate yardage through contact continues to make him one of the most physically imposing runners in the league.

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns

One matchup to watch will be the Titans offense on third down against a dominant Browns pass rush. Tennessee ranks last in the NFL with a 29% third-down conversion rate and has already surrendered 23 sacks on third down, the second-most of any team.

Cleveland’s defense is built to capitalize on these situations. The Browns generate pressure on 50% of opponent third-down dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the league, and their 20 third-down sacks rank second-most. Myles Garrett has been the driving force, accounting for a league-leading 8.5 sacks on third down alone.

When Cleveland has the ball, expect them to lean heavily on 12 personnel, as they line up in this formation on a league-high 46% of snaps. That grouping could create real opportunities in the run game against a Titans defense that has struggled in this specific matchup. Tennessee is allowing an explosive run on 19% of opponent rushing attempts from 12 personnel (31st in the NFL) and giving up 5.3 yards per carry against that grouping (also 31st).

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

In Week 13, Jakobi Meyers enjoyed his best performance since joining the Jaguars, securing all six of his targets for 90 yards and a touchdown. The majority of his production came on in-breaking routes, as he recorded four catches for 75 yards and the aforementioned touchdown on those concepts.

In seven games with the Raiders this season, Meyers managed just 89 yards and zero touchdowns on in-breaking routes, but he has 121 yards and two touchdowns in five games with the Jaguars. He now faces a Colts defense that has given up the second-most receiving yards to in-breaking routes this season (1,124).

Only Jalen Hurts has been blitzed more than Daniel Jones this season, and Jones struggled to find answers against the Texans’ blitz on Sunday, completing just two of 11 passes for 14 yards. The silver lining is that Jones avoided taking any sacks and continues to excel in that area, ranking fourth among qualifying quarterbacks with a 5% sack rate on blitzes. The Jaguars rank eighth with a 35% blitz rate, but their 5% sack rate is the third-lowest in the league.

Washington Commanders @ Minnesota Vikings

Terry McLaurin made a big impact in his return to the lineup in Week 13, converting six of his 14 targets — more than any Commanders pass catcher had in a single game before last week. Of his 14 targets, 12 came on throws 10-plus yards downfield, where he secured five catches for 82 yards. For the season, McLaurin’s 15.6 average depth of target ranks seventh highest among wide receivers with at least 30 targets, while the Vikings have faced one of the shallowest passing attacks in the league with a 7.3 average depth of target allowed, fifth lowest overall.

The J.J. McCarthy–Justin Jefferson connection hasn’t found its rhythm yet, producing a 53% completion rate and a 47.4 passer rating. McCarthy has struggled even more in one-on-one situations, where the pair has connected on just 35% of targets for a 27.0 passer rating against single coverage. This week offers as favorable a matchup as they could hope for against a Commanders defense that has allowed the highest completion rate in single coverage (63%).

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

In Week 4, De’Von Achane forced nine missed tackles as he rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown to give Miami its first win of the season. For the year, Achane has forced 38 missed tackles, tied for the seventh most among running backs, and he often turns those misses into explosive gains. He has produced 415 yards on plays with a missed tackle — third most among running backs — and has gained 10-plus yards on 15 such rushes, trailing only Jonathan Taylor this season.

Breece Hall has been highly effective as a pass catcher in 2025. Among running backs with at least 100 routes run, he ranks sixth in yards per route run (1.63) and fifth in yards per reception (10.3). While most running backs are targeted behind the line of scrimmage, Hall’s 1.7 average depth of target ranks seventh highest at the position.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rachaad White is an interesting case in that he is stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 11.1% of his runs, the third-lowest rate among running backs. However, 71.7% of his rushing yards have come after contact, and he may struggle to generate yards that way this week against a Saints run defense that is tied for third in fewest rush yards after contact allowed per attempt (2.6).

Chris Olave has been highly effective against single coverage this season. Among wide receivers with at least 50 snaps in those situations, he ranks 11th in yards per route run (3.58) and seventh in receiving first downs plus touchdowns (17).

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills

Joe Burrow showed no signs of diminished mobility in his return from the toe surgery that had sidelined him since September. One of the defining traits of Burrow’s game has always been his ability to maneuver within the pocket to extend plays, and that was on full display last week against Baltimore. Burrow recorded a 111.9 passer rating when moving in the pocket — completing four of his seven attempts, including a touchdown — and he added two scrambles to keep drives alive.

Burrow has consistently been one of the league’s most effective quarterbacks when forced off his initial spot. In 2024, he led the NFL with a 114.2 passer rating on throws after moving within the pocket. Since entering the league in 2020, his 104.0 passer rating on such attempts is the highest of any quarterback.

Buffalo enters Week 14 leaning heavily on man/duo run concepts, using them at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (29%) this season. Their reliance on these runs climbed even further last week against Pittsburgh, jumping to 43%. Buffalo ranks fourth in yards per carry on duo runs at 5.2, and their 12% explosive run rate on those plays is the seventh-best in the league.

James Cook has been especially dangerous on duo rushing attempts. His 11 explosive runs of 10 or more yards are the most of any player, and his 18 missed tackles forced on duo runs also lead the NFL.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, has quietly excelled at defending this run concept. The Bengals have allowed an explosive run on just 4% of duo plays this season, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

While Bo Nix leads the league with 56 deep pass attempts this season, he kept his throws much shorter against the Commanders, posting a season-low 5.0 average depth of target. The approach paid off, as Nix completed 23 of 30 passes for 221 yards on throws of five yards or less, the most passing yards by any quarterback in a game on such throws this season. The Raiders have allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards on throws of five yards or less (894).

Geno Smith has taken 25 sacks over the past four weeks, 12 more than any other quarterback. No single culprit stands out in protection, as seven different Raiders have surrendered multiple sacks during that span, including all of their starting offensive linemen. They now face a Broncos defense that sacked Smith six times in Week 10 and is averaging 5.1 sacks per game, a pace that would be the highest in the PFF era if sustained through the end of the season.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

The Bears' run game shone in their Black Friday win over the Eagles, totaling 281 rushing yards — 109 more than any other offense has recorded against Vic Fangio’s defense this season. Chicago produced six explosive runs in the game, bringing its season total to a league-leading 54. The Bears now face a Packers defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest explosive runs (25).

Jordan Love played with an aggressive approach against the Lions on Thanksgiving, attempting a season-high 19 passes past the sticks and completing 11 of them for 199 yards and three touchdowns. For the season, his 95.5 passing grade on throws past the sticks is tied for first with Matthew Stafford. He may take a more cautious approach this week against a Bears defense that leads the league with 15 interceptions on throws past the sticks.

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals

Matthew Stafford posted his lowest passing grade of the season in the Week 13 loss to the Panthers, finishing at 55.8. Tight-window throws gave him trouble, as he completed just one of five attempts and threw two interceptions, and all four of his interceptions this season have come on tight-window attempts. The Cardinals force tight-window throws at the sixth-highest rate in the league (19%).

After scoring only six touchdowns across his first three seasons, Trey McBride has already surpassed that total in 2025 by emerging as one of the league’s top red-zone threats. He has eight touchdowns on 21 red zone targets, trailing only his counterpart in this matchup, Davante Adams (12 touchdowns and 28 targets). The Rams have allowed the second-fewest red zone touchdowns this season, with just 15 given up.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Texans' interior offensive line has taken major strides in pass protection this season. Last year, Houston’s guards and centers allowed pressure on 16.3% of pass plays, the sixth-highest rate in the league. This season, they have allowed pressure on just 10.6% of plays, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL.

How Mahomes handles the vaunted Texans pass rush will be a key factor in this game. Over the past two seasons, he has taken a step back in avoiding sacks under pressure. In 2023, he was sacked on only 10.6% of pressures, the second-best rate in the league behind Josh Allen. Last season, that number rose to 18.5%, ranking 13th. This year, Mahomes has avoided a sack on 16.3% of pressured dropbacks, which also ranks 13th among 32 quarterbacks.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Chargers

Last week against the Raiders, the Chargers blitzed on 43.8% of their defensive snaps, their third-highest rate this season. It will be worth watching whether they continue this blitz-heavy approach against the Eagles, who have been blitzed at the third-highest rate in the league this year (34.2%). Jalen Hurts has been inconsistent against the blitz — while he owns the sixth-best passer rating in those situations (105.1), he has also taken 16 sacks, the third-most among quarterbacks this season.

Omarion Hampton is expected to return to the Chargers lineup this week after missing time on IR with an ankle injury. When fully healthy early in the season, his 0.33 missed tackles forced per attempt led all running backs. The Eagles defense has struggled with tackling ball carriers, particularly on interior runs — they have missed 32 tackles between the tackles, tied for the second most by any team this season.