MVP Rankings: Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow lead the way

• Josh Allen remains the MVP favorite: The Buffalo Bills quarterback leads the race at +170 odds, ranking first among qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play (0.38) and positively graded play rate (21.2%).

• Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow are close contenders: Purdy has +350 odds and an 86.1 PFF grade, while Burrow sits at +450 with a league-leading 91.2 PFF grade among quarterbacks with at least 125 dropbacks.

• Caleb Williams offers long-shot value: The Chicago Bears quarterback has +1700 MVP odds and ranks second in EPA per play (0.37), with a league-leading 8.5% completion percentage over expectation.

The NFL MVP race is starting to take shape as we head into Week 8, with several quarterbacks separating themselves from the pack. Here is a breakdown of the top three favorites and one long-shot candidate to win the NFL MVP award for the 2026 season.

QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (+170)

Allen continues to lead the MVP race heading into Week 8 after entering the season as the preseason favorite. He leads all qualified quarterbacks with a 21.2% positively graded play rate and ranks first in EPA per play (0.38).

Allen also owns the highest PFF rushing grade among quarterbacks at 91.5 while averaging an NFL-best 8.8 yards per pass attempt.

QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (+350)

Brock Purdy has played at an MVP level despite a pile of injuries to the 49ers‘ wide receiver room this season, ranking second among qualified passers in PFF grade (86.1). He has thrown 15 touchdown passes, tied for second in the league, while completing 69.2% of his attempts.

Purdy also leads all quarterbacks in positive EPA rate (56.8%) and ranks fourth in EPA per play (0.28).

QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (+450)

Among 32 qualified quarterbacks with at least 125 dropbacks this season, Burrow ranks first in PFF grade (91.2) and passing grade (89.5). He has avoided plays that hurt the Bengals, recording the lowest negatively graded play rate (5.4%) and the fifth-lowest turnover-worthy play rate (1.6%).

Burrow has thrown 15 touchdown passes while completing a league-leading 71.7% of his attempts.

Long shot: QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (+1700)

Williams has picked up right where he left off since returning from injury, throwing for more than 300 yards in back-to-back games, and the Bears are undefeated in games Williams has finished in 2026. His 8.5% completion percentage over expectation ranks second at the position, while his 86.1% adjusted completion percentage ranks first.

Williams also ranks second in EPA per play (0.37), trailing only Josh Allen, and he has thrown just one interception this season. Despite ranking near the bottom of the league in passing volume, his efficiency and ability to protect the football make him an intriguing long-shot MVP candidate.