The Buffalo Bills travel to face the Denver Broncos in Denver, Colo., on Saturday, Jan. 17, with kickoff set for 4:30 p.m. EST on CBS.
Below, we break down the spread, moneyline and total using PFF's market data, compare the two starting quarterbacks through stable efficiency metrics and highlight the team-level advantages that could swing this game.
This preview also dives into notable injuries, trench mismatches and unit-level grades that matter most on Sunday, with all data powered by PFF Premium Stats and betting projections.
Click here to see PFF's data-backed bets for this game
Team Metrics
| Bills | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Power Rank: Overall | 2nd | 5th |
| Power Rank: Defense | 13th | 3rd |
| Power Rank: Offense | 2nd | 10th |
| SOS Played | 28th | 16th |
| Avg Offensive Snaps | 67.1 | 68.3 |
| % Run Plays | 44.3% | 36.9% |
| % Pass Plays | 55.7% | 63.1% |
| EPA Per Run | 0.01 | -0.09 |
| EPA Per Pass | 0.21 | 0.07 |
QB Comparison
| Bills | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | J. Allen | B. Nix |
| PFF Grade | 90.5 | 75.2 |
| Passer Rating Clean | 114.2 | 99.2 |
| Passer Rating Under Pressure | 74.0 | 60.2 |
| Big-Time Throw % | 4.17% | 4.06% |
| Turnover-Worthy Play % | 2.24% | 2.80% |
| Power Rating | 7.0 | 2.0 |
| Power Rating Rank | 1st | 21st |
Key Injuries: Bills
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Grade | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Oliver | DI | Leg | IR-R | 87.3 | 83rd |
| D. Kincaid | TE | Leg | Q | 81.9 | 32nd |
| J. Poyer | S | Leg | OUT | 68.6 | 77th |
| T. Johnson | HB | Leg | Q | 64.9 | 47th |
| M. Hairston | CB | Leg | Q | 64.3 | 74th |
| D. Strong | CB | Head | IR | 62.9 | 139th |
| G. Davis | WR | Leg | OUT | 61.2 | 104th |
Key Injuries: Broncos
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Grade | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobbins | HB | Leg | IR | 76.8 | 48th |
| D. Greenlaw | LB | Leg | Q | 74.8 | 46th |
| L. Wattenberg | C | Arm | IR | 70.9 | 8th |
| B. Jones | S | Torso | IR | 64.2 | 42nd |
| J. Franklin-Myers | DI | Leg | Q | 61.3 | 25th |
| P. Locke | S | Leg | Q | 55.0 | 107th |
| L. Krull | TE | Leg | IR | 48.1 | 113th |
Betting insights: Spread
| Spread | Bills | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Market | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) |
| PFF Projection | -1.1 | +1.1 |
| Implied Cover Probability | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| Break Even | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Value | -2.7% | -2.0% |
| $$$% | 51% | 49% |
| Bets% | 47% | 53% |
Betting insights: Moneyline
| Moneyline | Bills | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Market | -110 | -110 |
| PFF Projection | -102 | +102 |
| Implied Win Probability | 50.5% | 49.4% |
| Break Even | 52.3% | 52.3% |
| Value | -1.9% | -2.9% |
| $$$% | 67% | 33% |
| Bets% | 59% | 41% |
Betting insights: Total
| Total | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| Market | 46.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) |
| PFF Projection | 46.9 | 46.9 |
| Implied Cover Probability | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| Break Even | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Value | -3.3% | -1.5% |
| $$$% | 23% | 77% |
| Bets% | 21% | 79% |
© 2026 PFF - all rights reserved.