The sports betting industry has exploded in recent years, ushering in an assortment of new and innovative betting opportunities. At this point, it feels like someone can wager on almost any event occurring during the course of a football game.
Some of the most worthwhile betting opportunities exist in the derivatives market. A derivative is any betting line that is derived from another; the most common example is first-half odds, which are derived from the full game counterpart. Numerous other options exist, however, spanning from first-half spreads and totals to betting by the quarter.
Before kickoff, we can evaluate individual derivative bets by utilizing some of our predictive models along with team tendencies and production when starting a game. The charts referenced below highlight teams' early-game ability through the first nine weeks of the season. These will be our guide as we look for value in some other derivative betting markets.
Our written picks went 1-2 last Sunday, pushing us to 10-11 on the season. Unfortunately, things have cooled off considerably for NFL derivatives since their hot start. It is now time to right the ship, with a few quality plays popping up that appear to offer value.