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Reviewing the 2015 NFL Draft with PFF WAR

Last week we took a look back at the 2016 draft with the help of PFF WAR and saw the two Super Bowl LIV teams at opposite ends of the spectrum. Our methods for this analysis were simple: using a regression, we determined what the value for each pick should be (using PFF WAR that is powered by AWS machine learning capabilities) and took the difference between what actually happened and what did happen.

This week we look at the 2015 NFL Draft. The same Super Bowl LIV team that killed it in 2016 (Kansas City) did so in 2015 as well, while San Francisco did slightly better in 2015 than they did in 2016, but they still weren't good enough to be in the upper half of the league.

Like 2016, two teams selected quarterbacks at the top of the draft. Though, unlike 2016, neither quarterback is the unquestioned signal-caller for his respective team going into the 2020 season. Jameis Winston led the NFL in passing yards in 2019, as we predicted he could, but his 30 interceptions leave his status as an uncontested NFL starter in peril. Marcus Mariota, on the other hand, was benched in favor of Ryan Tannehill six weeks into the 2019 season, and the Tennessee offense really never looked back after Mariota relinquished that starting spot. 

Nonetheless, we still omit quarterbacks from this analysis and provide some commentary on each team. 

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