- Josh Palmer is Buffalo’s weapon of choice vs. man coverage: Palmer leads Buffalo in targets (10) and yardage (114) versus man coverage, having racked up 2.92 yards per route run.
- D'Andre Swift may have tough sledding: The Bears running back faces a Commanders defense that ranks second in PFF run-defense grade.
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Buffalo Bills (-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons [Total: 49.5]
Game Overview
The Bills’ pursuit of an undefeated season came to an end after falling to the Patriots at home in Week 5. That matchup marked their third consecutive failed cover, all games in which the Bills were favored by more than a touchdown. Those losses dropped their record to just 2-3 against the spread, with a 25% cover rate as the favorite.
Josh Allen and this offense has been playing at a high-level — third in team PFF offensive grade (80.5) — but it may be without one of its top weapons this week in Dalton Kincaid, who carries a questionable designation into the game. That could present an issue against this Falcons defense that has allowed the fewest catches and yards to tight ends this season.
Fresh off their bye week, the Falcons come into this one rested and with momentum after a win at home against the Commanders in Week 4. Michael Penix Jr. bounced back from his lowest-graded game in Week 3 to produce the second-highest mark of his young career. That performance helped propel Atlanta into the top 12 in team PFF offense grade (70.8).
However, the team’s overall consistency in betting markets since Penix took over as the starter (3-4 ATS) makes this matchup as home dogs a bit more uncertain.
WR Josh Palmer, Buffalo Bills: Over 18.5 receiving yards (-112)
Although Joshua Palmer may not be the top option in this Bills receiving corps that incorporates a variety of weapons, he is far from an afterthought like this line would suggest. Buffalo has leaned on its 12 and 13 personnel to get its strong group of tight ends on the field to create mismatches in the both phases. With Dalton Kincaid (oblique) and Curtis Samuel (neck/ribs) questionable to play this week, we could see an increase of three-receiver sets and a further boost to Palmer’s snap share.
Even should Kincaid and Samuel be active, Palmer isn’t out there to run cardio. Josh Allen frequently looks his way when trying to push the ball down field, particularly against man coverage. The Falcons run such looks at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL.
Palmer leads Buffalo in targets (10) and yardage (114) versus man coverage, having racked up 2.92 yards per route run. Per PFF’s key insights, Palmer sees significantly more air yards against man looks, signaling a strong opportunity for him to make an impact down the field.
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders (-4.5) [Total: 50]
Game Overview
The Bears face their fifth consecutive game as the underdog to start 2025, holding a modest 2-2 ATS record, but tides may be starting to shift. Fresh off back-to-back outright wins as the dog and a Week 5 bye, Chicago is juiced coming into this matchup.
Improvements on defense over the team’s last two games have played a big role in their surge in the win column. Across their two-game win streak, the Bears ranked 13th in PFF team defense grade (68.3), — which is a vast jump over their first two outings, where Chicago posted the lowest mark in the NFL (49.5). The unit receives another boost this week with the likely returns of key defenders in Kyler Gordon, T.J. Edwards and preseason breakout pass rusher Austin Booker.
On the other sideline, Washington is looking to string together a pair of victories for the first time this season. While the Commanders hold a modest 3-2 ATS record, their success at home speaks for itself with a perfect 3-0 mark.
Despite Jayden Daniels missing some with injury early in the year, the Commanders have remained competitive every week behind a potent run game. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has flashed his massive potential as a runner, currently maintaining the highest PFF rushing grade (90.1) in the NFL among backs. The seventh-round rookie has produced an NFL-best 6.6 yards per carry behind nine rushes of 10 or more yards, the most by any back with fewer than 45 attempts.
RB D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears: Under 48.5 rushing yards (-112)
Chicago’s running game is a far cry from the unit we may come to expect in a Ben Johnson led offense. Through Week 5, the Bears rank 26th in EPA per rush, 22nd in successful run play rate (28.4%) and 26th in yards per attempt (3.8). Given those metrics, they face a daunting matchup against a Commanders defense that has generated top-six marks in PFF run-defense grade (80.9; second) and yards per carry (3.5; sixth).
Add that to the fact that the Commanders have struggled in coverage this year (32nd in PFF coverage grade), the expectation is for the Bears to funnel the offense through the passing game, as opposed to the run game. This poses a familiar challenge for the Bears given their past two matchups with the Cowboys and Raiders, both teams particularly poor in coverage – having posted bottom-five EPA per pass numbers. In those matchups, Swift was limited to under 40 yards in each.
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