Joe Burrow's start to 2026 puts him in MVP contention, Bengals in AFC title race

• Career-best start: Joe Burrow has earned a 91.2 PFF grade through seven weeks of 2026, his highest mark at this stage of any season since entering the NFL.

• Strong second-half track record: Since 2020, Burrow has earned a 95.5 PFF passing grade from Week 8 through the playoffs, the highest among qualifying quarterbacks, as Cincinnati prepares for the NFL's easiest remaining schedule.

• Wins above replacement (WAR): Burrow leads all NFL quarterbacks with 1.54 WAR through seven weeks. His lead is narrow, with Dak Prescott second at 1.52 WAR, followed by C.J. Stroud (1.37), Brock Purdy (1.28) and Bryce Young (1.24).

At halftime of the Cincinnati Bengals' AFC North game against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, the Bengals found themselves in a 13-0 hole. Little had gone right for their offense in the first half, and they were staring down the barrel of a divisional loss against a backup quarterback coming out of their bye week. Even on the road, that would have been a bad result for the Bengals.

And then Joe Burrow locked in.

The former first overall pick earned a 95.0 PFF passing grade in the second half, going 16-for-18 for 249 yards and four touchdowns. It was the best half of football we've seen from any quarterback in the NFL this season, with Burrow dictating the game to the Ravens‘ defense like he was conducting an orchestra.

But it's not just about the second half of that game. What we've seen from Burrow through the first seven weeks of the season has been the best start of his career. Burrow has earned a 91.2 PFF grade, which ranks second in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.

And here's how that compares to every other season of his career.

Through seven weeks, Burrow has completed 157 of his 219 passes for 1,653 yards, 15 touchdowns and just three interceptions, earning a 110.4 passer rating in the process. His 19.9% positively graded play rate ranks third among qualifying quarterbacks, but his negatively graded play rate of just 5.4% is the lowest.

He's recorded 12 big-time throws, tied for the fourth-most in the NFL. His 5.3% big-time throw rate ranks fifth, and his 1.6% turnover-worthy play rate ranks sixth-lowest. His 78.7% adjusted completion percentage and 0.21 EPA per play both rank seventh.

But why does Burrow's hot start matter?

Well, since Burrow entered the NFL in 2020, he has earned a 95.5 PFF grade from Week 8 through the end of the season, including the playoffs. Among the 28 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 qualifying dropbacks over that span, that is comfortably the best mark in the NFL.

So we have Joe Burrow, who has been the best quarterback in football over the final 10 weeks of the regular season and the playoffs since he entered the NFL, and he just happens to be enjoying the best start to a season of his career.

It stands to reason that if he can continue his usual second-half form, he will probably finish as the highest-graded quarterback in the NFL this season.

That should be particularly good news for a Bengals team that faces the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL this season. They have arguably the best quarterback in football right now, entering the stretch of the season in which he has historically been at his most dominant, with the league's easiest schedule ahead of him.

With all of that working in their favor, there's little reason to believe the Bengals can't be serious contenders for the No. 1 seed in the AFC by the end of the regular season. Their Week 14 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs could prove pivotal in that race.

If the Bengals and Burrow continue playing at this level, both the team and its quarterback could be in line to take home some serious hardware this season.