Fantasy: Finding value before the breakout season

We all drew straws at the profootballfocus.com/fantasy site for assignments. I think I got the best straw of them all: dynasty explorer. In the coming months I will be discussing different dynasty league targets to either pick up or trade for while their fantasy value is still relatively low. Mostly I will be discussing offensive players, but once every two weeks or so I will find defensive players to target as well. This week’s first installment will be two guys that most fantasy football owners already know.

Donald Brown, age 23, is currently being drafted as the 37th running back taken according to myfantasyleague.com drafts. Many people assume that Joseph Addai (20th running back taken) is the shoe-in for all the Colts significant carries and RB catches this year. That my friends is the power of Peyton Manning as he can make the ordinary RB look good, and take the good and make them appear great, just ask “Edge” James.

The average and attempts are not impressive; Addai kicked his butt on both of those. He missed five games do to injuries, but the stat to consider is that DB had 12 missed/broken tackles in the running game with only 78 carries. Addai had 13 missed/broken tackles on 219 attempts. Imagine what a healthy Brown could do with the same opportunities.

Brown has been making the transition from a run first offense to a pass heavy one led by one of fantasy’s elite in Manning. Donald in his last year of college play averaged 5.7 yards per rush and had 21 catches. Connecticut’s offense wasn’t a pass happy offense at all and Brown showed the Colt brass that he had the zu-zu to make the transition. Addai is on the last year of his contract and may not be resigned. The Colts need to be frugal with their money since they will be paying a huge contract to Peyton and will need more money to resign weapons Wayne and Mathis.

Donald’s biggest concern is his pass blocking as he did not do that much in college. A lead back for the Colts will be expected to do that well. He can run and catch well, but Manning needs to trust him. The Indianapolis Star has written that Brown has been struggling with his pass blocking this preseason. If Brown can make the transition, he will be a very important cog in the Colts offense. He is a more accurate receiver than Addai on a per catch basis, but needs to improve on making people miss when he catches the ball.

I am confident that Donald Brown will be given every opportunity to become the Colts running back for years to come. Get him while you still can as a third RB with upside.

Ahmad Bradshaw, age 24, is currently being drafted as the 29th running back taken according to myfantasyleague.com ADP. Bradshaw has been in a fight with incumbent starter Brandon Jacobs all offseason and even though Jacobs is currently being drafted as the 28th running back, all reports out of training camp indicate that Bradshaw has the lead for the starting job. Bradshaw is a better receiver and much more agile than the bigger Jacobs. Both backs have injury histories, but Bradshaw was much more productive in 2009 even when injured. Be careful here though as it may come very close to a 50-50 split in 2010. Injuries have held back Ahmad; Bradshaw does have a slight edge in the passing game. Bradshaw has seemed in seasons past to be more of a change of pace guy, not the starter. Neither, Bradshaw or Jacobs have been injury free as both have been dealing with a number of injuries.

Last year, Jacobs’ average dropped to 3.72 yards per carry; this was down from the previous almost 5 yards per carry that Jacobs was averaging. Currently, ESPN has been reporting that the starting job is Ahmad’s. Bradshaw can keep the job with his shifty, less physical running style than Jacobs. Legal and maturity issues have been plaguing Bradshaw; this is the year he puts stealing a play station from another student’s room behind him.

The Giants have stated they will be more committed to running the ball and getting their running backs involved in the offense. The smart play here is the shiftier, younger running back. Get Bradshaw as your #3 RB before Jacobs’ physical running style finally does him in.

Both Brown and Bradshaw have upside and the ability to grow with high powered offenses.  These young backs could be the cornerstone of your dynasty league for years to come.