Below you'll find tiers and rankings for every position, including analysis, implied point totals, betting spreads and more.
Last updated: 12:30 p.m., Oct. 3
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- SOS: PFF's Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.
- OL Pass-Block Advantage (OL PBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup; derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (pass blocking advantage — the higher the number, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).
- OL Run-Block Advantage (OL RBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup; derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (run blocking advantage – the higher the number, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).
- WR/CB Matchup Advantage (WR/CB MU): wide receiver versus cornerback matchup; derived from the WR/CB Matchup tool (matchup advantage grade – the higher the grade, the better the matchup for the receiver, and vice versa).
- TE Matchup Advantage (TE MU): tight end versus linebackers and safeties; derived from the TE Matchup tool (matchup advantage — the higher the number, the better the matchup for the tight end, and vice versa.
- Projections: from PFF projections tool.
- Injuries: Q = Questionable; D = Doubtful (typically removed from ranks on Saturday); GTD = game time decision
JUMP TO A POSITION RANKING:
|Tier||Rank||Player||Opponent||Total||Spread||Implied Points||QB SOS||OL PBA||PPR||Injury Status|
Tier 1 – Typically, a quarterback favored by 16 points, as Josh Allen is, might risk a dud second half as their team runs the ball with a lead. However, that isn't the case with the Bills, who rank first in the NFL in passing rate when leading (66%). Allen also sports the top implied score, second-best QB SOS and sixth-highest OL PBA on the slate — making him the QB1 for Week 4.
Tier 1 – Patrick Mahomes has a bottom-half QB SOS, but the total, implied points and OL PBA metrics look great.
Tier 2 – Tom Brady is off to a blazing start (QB4, QB3, QB4) and lands a good but not great matchup against his old teacher in New England. He edges out the other elite rushing quarterbacks thanks to matchup advantages.
Tier 2 – The Ravens are flashing signals of a more pass-intense — or at least matchup-based — offense early in the season, which would be a boon for Lamar Jackson. He is currently fifth in scramble rate (7%) and laps the field in designed-rush attempts at 26% (plus 22% versus the NFL average). He draws the second-worst passing matchup, but the Broncos are reaping the rewards of a soft schedule. Jackson is questionable (back) but put in a full practice on Friday, and his rostership projection is at a low 2% on DraftKings, making him an excellent contrarian option in tournaments.
Tier 2 – Kyler Murray has two QB1 finishes and a QB14 on the season. He draws the worst QB SOS on the slate against the Rams. He finished as the QB15 in Week 13 against them in 2020, but he still managed three touchdown passes with a banged-up shoulder. Despite the matchup situation, Murray's legs and the high point total keep him from falling too far outside of the top three.
Tier 3 – Justin Herbert climbs into the top six for the first time in my 2021 ranks thanks to a juicy game total and implied points Monday night versus the Raiders. Herbert is one of the players I regret not rostering more in fantasy drafts because the Chargers' offense is flashing elite underlying signals as a pass-heavy team willing to maintain a high tempo.
Tier 3 – Russell Wilson, Matt Stafford and Dak Prescott round out the tier with big game totals and good-to-great implied points in less-than-ideal matchups.
Tier 4 – Derek Carr makes his first top-12 appearance after QB9, QB8 and QB11 finishes. The veteran has a top-12 appearance in seven out of his past eight starts dating back to Week 12 of 2020. In a top-three game total with the sixth-best QB SOS on the week, fireworks are likely coming.
Tier 5 – Ryan Tannehill drops from Tier 4 to Tier 5 with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones out for Week 4.
Tier 5 – Justin Fields is in a great bounce-back spot against the Lions, who provide the top-rated QB SOS matchup this week. Fields' 18% of designed rush attempts and 10% scramble rate provide an excellent foundation based on historical fantasy points.