Fantasy News & Analysis

Fantasy Football Week 11: 5 WR/CB matchups to target and 5 to avoid

Paradise, Nevada, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Parris Campbell (1) celebrates his touchdown scored against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney: Toney (71.3 PFF receiving grade) is a must-start against Los Angeles Chargers cornerback Michael Davis (58.9 PFF coverage grade).

Philadelphia Eagles backup slot CB Josiah Scott: Scott (53.2 PFF coverage grade) will have his hands full versus Indianapolis Colts slot receiver Parris Campbell (61.0 PFF receiving grade).

Dallas Cowboys WR Michael Gallup: Don't start Gallup (63.4 PFF receiving grade) against Minnesota Vikings cornerback Patrick Peterson (83.7 PFF coverage grade). 

Estimated Reading Time: 12 mins

Welcome to Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season. The sections below highlight five wide receivers to target and five to avoid in fantasy football with data gleaned from PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart.


5 WR/CB MATCHUPS TO TARGET

WR Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs vs. CB Michael Davis, Los Angeles Chargers

  • Kansas City at Los Angeles boasts the week’s highest over/under (50.0).
  • The Chiefs' jumbo 28.0-point implied team total at BetMGM indicates significant touchdown potential.
  • Kansas City’s offensive line garnered a 33.0% matchup advantage rating over Los Angeles’ defensive line in PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart, second-best on the week. 
  • Wideout Kadarius Toney (71.3 PFF receiving grade) re-established himself as a dynamic, game-breaking offensive weapon after just two games with Kansas City.
  • The table below shows Toney’s snaps and routes data over the past two weeks. Toney played on 9.4% of quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ (87.4 PFF passing grade) Week 9 dropbacks and 41.5% of Mahomes’ Week 10 dropbacks. 
Toney Wide-Left Snap % – Route Run % Slot Snap % – Route Run % Wide-Right Snap % – Route Run % Total Snaps – Routes Run
Week 9 28.6% – 28.6% 57.1% – 57.1% 14.3% – 14.3% 7 – 7
Week 10 39.3% – 52.9% 28.6% – 5.9% 32.1% – 41.2% 28 – 17
Weeks 9-10 37.1% – 45.8% 34.3% – 20.8% 28.6% – 33.3% 35 – 24
  • Kansas City will be without part-time slot receivers Mecole Hardman (injured reserve, 65.8 PFF receiving grade) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion, 72.6 PFF receiving grade), leaving Toney a clear path to securing the long-term No. 1 wide receiver role.
  • Toney’s left-heavy snaps and route shares point toward him facing backup cornerback Michael Davis (58.9 PFF coverage grade) on a plurality of plays. 
  • The table below ranks Davis’ coverage data in parentheses among 79 NFL cornerbacks with at least 50 coverage snaps since Davis took over for injured starter J.C. Jackson in Week 8. “No. 1” represents the best defensive performance. 
PFF Coverage Grade Catch % Allowed Rec. Yds Allowed/Cov. Snap Missed Tackles Explosive Pass Plays Allowed %
59.1 (No. 56) 57.1% (T-No. 23) 1.48 (T-No. 62) 3 (T-No. 72) 3.6% (No. 62)
  • The table below ranks Toney in parentheses among NFL wide receivers with at least five targets over the past two weeks. “No. 1” represents the best offensive performance.
PFF Receiving Grade Per Routes Run %: Tgts – Yds Catch % – YAC/Rec. Missed Tackles Forced Rec. – Explosive Pass Plays
79.8 (No. 10) 30.4% (No. 8) – 3.00 (No. 8) 85.7% (T-No. 13) – 7.0 (No. 12) 3 (T-No. 1) – 2 (T-No. 29)
  • Toney’s ability to force missed tackles and pick up yardage after the catch is tailor-made to exploit Davis’ deficiencies. 

WR Parris Campbell, Indianapolis Colts vs. CB Josiah Scott, Philadelphia Eagles

  • Indianapolis is a 6.5-point home underdog against the Eagles, which should facilitate an above-average passing rate for the Colts' offense.
  • PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart projects fourth-year slot receiver Parris Campbell (61.0 PFF receiving grade) to face fill-in slot cornerback Josiah Scott (53.2 PFF coverage grade) on 26-of-42 snaps, giving Campbell a below-average 34.4 matchup advantage rating. 
  • There is reason for optimism, though, as Campbell’s WR/CB chart data is muddled by two outings with subpar backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger. Campbell was cooking with quarterback Matt Ryan at the helm in Weeks 6 and 7, but then-head coach Frank Reich benched Ryan in favor of Ehlinger. 
  • New head coach Jeff Saturday named Ryan the starter shortly before Week 10, rekindling the Ryan-to-Campbell connection. 
  • The table below ranks in parentheses Campbell’s past three games with Ryan at the helm among 41 NFL wide receivers with at least 15 targets in Weeks 6, 7 and 10
PFF Receiving Grade Per Routes Run %: Tgts – Yds Catch % – YAC/Rec. Missed Tackles Forced Rec. – Explosive Pass Plays
68.7 (No. 24) 22.0% (No. 18) – 1.54 (No. 26) 82.8% (No. 3) – 4.5 (No. 18) 7 (No. 2) – 3 (T-No. 25)
  • The table below ranks Scott’s slot coverage data in parentheses among 36 NFL cornerbacks with at least 80 slot coverage snaps.
PFF Slot Coverage Grade Catch % Allowed Rec. Yds Allowed/Cov. Snap Missed Tackles Explosive Pass Plays Allowed % Open Target %
52.9 (No. 18) 71.4% (t-No. 16) 1.24 (T-No. 21) 1 (T-No. 5) 1.1% (No. 6) 71.4% (No. 27)
  • Scott does a decent job of limiting big plays, but Campbell’s shifty route running gives him an edge against Scott’s shaky open target rate and catch rate allowed when targeted. 

WR Drake London, Atlanta Falcons vs. CB Jaylon Jones, Chicago Bears

  • Chicago at Atlanta boasts a massive 49.5-point over/under. 
  • Atlanta’s 26.25-point implied team total indicates hat-trick touchdown potential. 
  • As mentioned in the WR vs. CB matchups piece from Week 9, the Chicago Bears have significantly improved their offensive play calling since Week 5, resulting in a competitive environment for both Chicago and its opponents. 
  • The Bears averaged 30.3 points per game over the past three weeks, while their opponents are excitingly averaging 38.3. 
  • PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart projects Atlanta No. 1 wide receiver Drake London to take double-digit snaps against all three of Chicago’s starting cornerbacks, Jaylon Jones (50.8 PFF coverage grade), Jaylon Johnson (61.8 PFF coverage grade) and Kyler Gordon (43.4 PFF coverage grade). Cornerback Kindle Vildor’s health status (ankle, 64.9 PFF coverage grade) is unknown. The table below ranks Chicago’s coverage in parentheses among NFL teams.
PFF Coverage Grade Catch % Allowed – Forced Inc. %  Yds Allowed/Cov. Snap – Explosive Pass Plays Allowed % Open Target % 
56.4 (No. 27) 72.9% (No. 23) – 5.2% (No. 31) 6.88 (No. 28) – 17.2% (No. 29) 61.8% (T-No. 27) 
  • The table below ranks London in parentheses among 49 NFL wide receivers with at least 50 targets.
PFF Receiving Grade Per Routes Run %: Tgts – Yds Catch % – Contested Catch %  YAC/Rec.  Explosive Pass Plays – Missed Tackles Forced 
79.8 (No. 14) 25.4% (No. 8) – 1.70 (No. 27) 62.3% (No. 36) – 55.6% (T-No. 11) 3.2 (T-No. 33) 9 (T-No. 37) – 8 (T-No. 10)
  • Chicago’s top-four cornerbacks skew toward zone coverage at a 58.2% rate. 
  • Among 67 NFL wide receivers with at least 10 targets, London’s 68.9% target rate versus zone coverage is No. 2 and his 84.9 PFF receiving grade versus zone coverage ranks No. 6. 

WR Chris Moore, Houston Texans vs. CB Bobby McCain, Washington Commanders

  • Houston has an 18.75-point implied team total against Washington this week.
  • PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart projects Houston slot receiver Chris Moore (62.8 PFF receiving grade) to face slot cornerback Bobby McCain (57.4 PFF coverage grade) on 30-of-39 snaps, giving Moore a poor 23.2 matchup advantage rating. There are reasons for optimism, though, as McCain’s coverage metrics indicate leaky coverage. 
  • Washington head coach Ron Rivera bumped McCain from safety to slot cornerback three weeks ago due to the ascension of second-year safety Darrick Forrest (84.8 PFF coverage grade).
  • The table below ranks McCain’s slot coverage data in parentheses among 41 NFL defensive backs with at least 25 slot coverage snaps since Week 8.
PFF Slot Coverage Grade Catch % Allowed – Forced Inc. % Yards Allowed/Cov. Snap  Explosive Pass Plays Allowed % Open Target %
59.9 (No. 23) 100.0% (T-No. 35) – 0.0% (T-No. 18) 1.24 (T-No.18) 2.6% (T-No. 18) 85.7% (No. 36)
  • Washington’s perimeter cornerbacks (70.1 PFF out-wide coverage grade) have allowed a middling 86.0 NFL passer rating (No. 16) during that span.
  • Moore has led the team in targets (10) over the past two weeks, thriving both in the slot (69.9% snap rate) and out wide (30.1% snap rate). The table below ranks Moore in parentheses among NFL receivers with at least 25 slot snaps and NFL receivers with at least 10 out-wide snaps in Weeks 9 and 10.
PFF Slot Receiving Grade – PFF Out-Wide Receiving Grade Slot Per Routes Run %: Tgts – Yds Out-Wide Per Routes Run %: Tts – Yds Slot Catch % – Out-Wide Catch % Slot Explosive Pass Plays – Out-Wide Explosive Pass Plays
77.2 (No. 10) – 74.0 (No. 14) 21.6% (No. 12) – 2.11 (No. 10) 20.0% (T-No. 39) – 3.50 (No. 7) 62.5% (No. 23) – 100.0% (T-No. 1) 3 (T-No. 1) – 1 (T-No. 26)

WR Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders vs. CB Steven Nelson, Houston Texans

  • Washington’s 21.75-point implied team total indicates a potential three-touchdown outing for the Commanders in Houston. 
  • Houston shadow cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (hamstring, 49.9 PFF coverage grade) was downgraded to a Did Not Participate practice designation on Thursday, putting the rookie's Sunday availability in doubt.
  • PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart projects Washington No. 1 wide receiver Terry McLaurin (76.6 PFF receiving grade) to face cornerback Steven Nelson (80.2 PFF coverage grade) on 20-of-41 snaps this week, giving McLaurin a good 66.6 matchup advantage rating. 
  • McLaurin has dominated defenders since quarterback Taylor Heinicke (48.2 PFF passing grade) took over in Week 7. The table below ranks McLaurin in parentheses among 102 NFL wide receivers with at least 30 targets during that span.
PFF Receiving Grade Per Routes Run %: Tgts – Yds Catch % – Contested Catch % YAC/Rec. – Explosive Pass Plays
85.7 (No. 4) 25.2% (No. 11) – 2.74 (T-No. 10) 70.6% (No. 50) – 60.0% (T-No. 32) 4.5 (No. 40) – 9 (T-No. 6)
  • McLaurin should take meaningful snaps versus Nelson, Desmond King II (71.7 PFF coverage grade) and Tavierre Thomas (59.8 PFF coverage grade). 
  • The table below ranks Houston’s coverage data in parentheses among NFL teams.
PFF Coverage Grade Catch % Allowed – Forced Inc. % Yds Allowed/Cov. Snap Explosive Pass Plays Allowed % Open Target %
53.1 (No. 30) 68.4% (No. 11) – 7.8% (No. 23) 6.75 (No. 25) 19.5% (No. 32) 63.1% (No. 31)

5 WR/CB MATCHUPS TO AVOID

WR Allen Robinson II, Los Angeles Rams vs. CB Paulson Adebo, New Orleans Saints

  • Los Angeles garnered a lousy 18.0-point implied team total against New Orleans.
  • The table below shows Rams wide receiver Allen Robinson II’s 2022 pre-snap alignment and his corresponding PFF receiving grades.
Wide-Left % – PFF Receiving Grade Slot % – PFF Receiving Grade Wide-Right % – PFF Receiving Grade
47.0% – 59.8 27.3% – 63.3 25.8% – 63.9
  • New Orleans left-side cornerback Paulson Adebo (35.7 PFF coverage grade) projects to be Robinson’s primary coverage defender.
  • Robinson has an opportunity to assume No. 1 wide receiver duties with Cooper Kupp (high ankle sprain, 88.1 PFF receiving grade) out indefinitely, but Ben Skowronek (40.6% slot rate, 52.8 PFF receiving grade) has the inside track to be Kupp replacement. 
  • Robinson has been a disappointment this year. The table below ranks his receiving data in parentheses among 54 NFL wide receivers with at least 45 targets.
PFF Receiving Grade Per Routes Run %: Tgts – Yds Catch % – Contested Catch % YAC/Rec. – Explosive Pass Plays Missed Tackles Forced Rec.
63.9 (T-No. 44) 13.9% (No. 50) – 0.88 (No. 52) 63.0% (No. 36) – 50.0% (T-No. 18) 2.1 (No. 51) – 7 (T-No. 46) 2 (T-No. 36)
  • While New Orleans’ 57.9 PFF coverage grade (tied for 24th) hardly instills fear, the trench matchup should. 
  • Los Angeles’ 30th-ranked, injury-ruined offensive line (53.4 pass-blocking grade) is in trouble versus New Orleans’ 25th-ranked pass rush (65.3 PFF pass-rush grade).

WR Steven Sims, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. CB Mike Hilton, Cincinnati Bengals

  • Pittsburgh currently has a mild 18.5-point implied team total versus Cincinnati.
  • Steelers media buzzed about journeyman Steven Sims’ slot-receiver potential after the team traded Chase Claypool ahead of its Week 9 bye. Sims’ part-time receiver role alongside 2020 first-team All-Pro kick/punt returner Gunner Olszewski did not live up to expectations. 
  • Pittsburgh decreased Olszewski's special teams involvement after he produced a 54.8 kick return grade and a 29.0 PFF punt return grade in Weeks 1-4.
  • The table below lists Sims and Olszewski’s receiving, kick- and punt-returning data in Week 10. 
Steelers Nos. 3 & 4 WRs Slot Snaps (PFF Receiving Grade) – Total WR Snaps (PFF Receiving Grade) Punt Returns (PFF Punt Return Grade) Kick Returns (PFF Kick Return Grade)
Steven Sims 13 (53.0) – 15 (62.0) 5 (61.7) 3 (59.0)
Gunner Olszewski 12 (54.9) – 13 (54.9) 4 (N/A) 0 (N/A)
  • Sims’ 13.3% targets per route run rate outpaced Olszewski’s 7.7%, which could lead to an increase in wide receiver snaps for Sims this week. Still, PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives him a poor 12.8 matchup advantage rating on 20 projected snaps versus Cincinnati slot cornerback Mike Hilton (66.2 PFF coverage grade). 
  • Sims’ 12.8 matchup advantage rating is the seventh-worst among NFL wide receivers in Week 10
  • The table below ranks Hilton in parentheses among 29 NFL cornerbacks with at least 100 slot coverage snaps.
PFF Slot Coverage Grade Catch % Allowed Forced Inc. % Yds Allowed/Cov. Snap Open Target %
65.6 (No. 9) 69.0% (No. 8) 6.9% (No. 10) 0.99 (No. 9) 41.4% (No. 1)

WR Terrace Marshall Jr., Carolina Panthers vs. CB Marlon Humphrey, Baltimore Ravens

  • Carolina’s embarrassingly low 14.25-point implied team total offers little confidence in the team's offense.
  • Panthers No. 2 wide receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. (71.6 PFF receiving grade) broke out in Weeks 8-9, earning a 22.4% targets per route run rate — tied for 14th among NFL wide receivers with at least 15 targets during that span — while producing 2.09 yards per route run (11th).
  • Marshall struggled to earn targets in Week 10, though (11.1% targets per route run), and quarterback Baker Mayfield (53.9 PFF passing grade) has been renamed starter with P.J. Walker (60.3 PFF passing grade) out due to a high ankle sprain.
  • Mayfield’s 53.9 PFF passing grade ranks 31st and his 78.1 NFL passer rating ranks 29th among 34 NFL quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks this season.
  • Over the past three weeks, Marshall Jr. has logged an 86.5% perimeter-snap rate, with an edge toward the right side pre-snap.
  • The table below ranks Baltimore’s right-side cornerback Marlon Humphrey (73.8 PFF coverage grade) and left-side cornerback Marcus Peters (60.3 PFF coverage grade) among 41 NFL cornerbacks with at least 300 coverage snaps.
Ravens CBs PFF Coverage Grade Catch % Allowed – Yds Allowed/Cov. Snap Explosive Pass Plays Allowed % Open Target %
Marlon Humphrey 73.8 (No. 14) 68.3% (No. 36) – 0.77 (No. 9) 1.3% (T-No. 6) 51.2% (No. 30)
Marcus Peters 60.3 (No. 30) 59.2% (T-No. 23) – 1.30 (No. 34) 3.1% (T-No. 32) 44.9% (No. 20)

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns vs. CB Christian Benford, Buffalo Bills

  • Cleveland garnered a worrying 17.0-point implied team total against Buffalo this week.
  • Browns No. 2 wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones has been on a frustratingly scoreless heater while still producing 2.23 yards per route run since Week 4, tied for the 12th-best average among 43 NFL wide receivers with at least 35 targets during that span
  • Positive touchdown regression should come soon, but Buffalo is not a team to bet against.
  • Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski does a great job moving Peoples-Jones around the formation. The table below shows both Peoples-Jones’ pre-snap alignment and corresponding PFF receiving grades since Week 4.
Wide-Left % – PFF Receiving Grade Slot % – PFF Receiving Grade Wide-Right % – PFF Receiving Grade
32.4% – 65.7 28.2% – 71.9 35.0% – 72.5
  • The table below ranks Buffalo’s team defensive performance in parentheses among NFL teams
PFF Coverage Grade Forced Inc. % – Yds Allowed/Cov. Snap Explosive Pass Plays Allowed % PFF Pass-Rush Grade Pass-Rush-Win %
81.0 (No. 5) 9.8% (No. 7) – 5.76 (No. 6) 11.1% (No. 4) 83.0 (No. 2) 59.7% (No. 5)
  • Buffalo has a chance to return edge Greg Rousseau (ankle, 83.7 PFF pass-rush grade), safety Jordan Poyer (elbow, 67.4 PFF coverage grade) and cornerback Tre’Davious White (ACL reconstruction, 69.0 PFF coverage in 2021).

WR Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys vs. CB Patrick Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

  • Dallas’s 24.5-point implied team total is quite high despite a difficult matchup against a scrappy Minnesota defense.
  • PFF’s WR/CB chart projects Dallas wide receiver Michael Gallup (63.4 PFF receiving grade) to take 19-of-42 snaps against red-hot Minnesota cornerback Patrick Peterson (83.7 PFF coverage grade). 
  • The table below ranks Peterson in parentheses among 68 NFL cornerbacks with at least 100 coverage snaps since Week 6
PFF Coverage Grade Catch % Allowed – Forced Inc. % Yds Allowed/Cov. Snap Open Target %
91.5 (No. 1) 61.1% (T-No. 26) – 27.8% (No. 3) 0.76 (No. 15) 27.8% (No. 6)
  • Minnesota’s secondary skews slightly zone-coverage-heavy, which Gallup has struggled with this year. His 63.8 PFF receiving grade versus zone ranks 45th among 67 NFL wide receivers with at least 10 targets, and his 1.15 yards per route run versus zone is tied for 50th. 
  • Backup perimeter cornerback Duke Shelley (86.1 PFF coverage grade) stepped in and immediately forced a profound pass breakup in Minnesota’s win over Buffalo last week. That came after Week 10 starter Akayleb Evans (50.4 PFF coverage grade) suffered a concussion.
  • Gallup has been moderately ineffective since his Week 4 return. Among five Cowboys with at least 10 targets since then, Gallup’s 17.9% targets per route run rate and 1.05 yards per route run both rank third. His 2.8 yards after the catch per reception ranks fourth and his 55.2% catch rate ranks fifth.
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