• Best mid-priced player: The Bills drafted rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid for matchups like this. If the preseason is anything to go by, he should perform right away.
• See where these players rank: PFF's fantasy football rankings are meticulously crafted by analyzing players' performance data, matchups, trends, preseason utilization and other relevant factors.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets ($10,400)
Wilson is the one proven star who has a decent matchup in this game.
- In Week 9 of the 2022 season, Wilson caught eight passes for 92 yards against the Bills with Zach Wilson at quarterback. He caught six passes for 78 yards in Week 14 with Mike White under center.
- The Jets star receiver was targeted on just 20.3% of his routes in those games, and that target rate should increase for this game.
- The Jets are home underdogs, and Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook are coming off injuries. New York will likely lean into the passing game more in this contest.
- Tre’Davious White traveled to Wilson’s side of the field when the two played in Week 14, and he will likely do the same in this game.
- White earned an excellent 90.1 coverage grade as a rookie in 2017, but his grades have slowly but surely declined throughout his career. He earned a 69.0 grade in 2021 and a 56.7 grade in 2022.
- 2022 sixth-round pick Christian Benford beat out Dane Jackson for the starting job opposite White. But Benford’s 58.8 coverage grade from a season ago doesn't inspire much confidence, either.
- While we can expect Jackson and a fully healthy White to be better this season, Wilson will be catching passes from Aaron Rodgers and not from quarterbacks now serving as backups.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills ($5,000)
The best way to attack the Jets' defense is to target the middle of the field in the passing game.
- New York allowed just 1,110 receiving yards to outside receivers last season, more than 150 yards fewer than any other team in the league.
- Sauce Gardner (90.0 coverage grade) and D.J. Reed (77.5) are excellent cornerbacks, but they stick to playing outside, so they will face Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis all game long.
- The Jets allowed 1,885 yards to players lined up in the slot or at tight end last season, the fifth-worst mark among teams.
- The big difference in the middle of the defense is at safety, where 2022 undrafted player Tony Adams is expected to start.
- Adams played 14 snaps over the first 16 weeks of the season but played significantly in their last two weeks.
- Kincaid should play a lot in 2023 despite being a rookie. He ran a route on 67% of passing plays with the starters in the last preseason game while Dawson Knox was still playing. Knox was just over 50%.
- He also lined up in the slot as well as in a traditional tight end position. He should be spending most of the day attacking the middle of the defense.
- The Jets allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends last season, including a TE5 finish by Knox in Week 14.
- Kincaid might be hit-or-miss for fantasy purposes early in his career, but he should shine in this game.
Deonte Harty, Buffalo Bills ($200)
Harty should be in your lineup for the same reason Kincaid should be — because he will attack the middle of the Jets' defense.
- Harty was the No. 1 slot receiver for Buffalo throughout training camp.
- He took 16 snaps in the slot in the first quarter of the preseason games. The only other players with at least five were Kincaid and Stefon Diggs.
- Many thought Khalil Shakir would be Harty’s primary competition for the slot role, but Shakir rarely played with the first-team offense this August. When he played, he lined up out wide three times more often than he lined up in the slot.
- The Bills are expected to run a lot more two-tight end sets this season after drafting Kincaid, but Harty should still be on the field for over half of the Bills’ offensive plays.
- Harty would be an absolute bargain at $200 even if it wasn’t for the good matchup against the Jets' defense. The favorable matchup is just a bonus.