Average draft position is generally a decent barometer for where players should be selected in 2021 fantasy football drafts, but there are always players the consensus misses on — especially early in draft season.
I've been updating my rankings over the past couple of weeks, so it's a good time to examine which players I'm higher and lower on at this point relative to ADP. (You can find rankings tiers by all of PFF's analysts here throughout the preseason and PFF's 2021 Fantasy Football Draft Kit here.)
The following players stand out as values and fades at this point and are worth targeting and/or avoiding at their current cost.
Top Value: Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers (Rank: QB17, ADP QB23)
Rookie quarterbacks are often worthy gambles in fantasy drafts. Justin Herbert finished as a top-10 quarterback last season. Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts joined Herbert as early 2020 picks who had at least one top-five finish, according to PFF's new Weekly Finishes tool.
Lance is the exact type of quarterback who can find fantasy success as a rookie. He has a monster arm and wants to attack downfield. He's a strong, physical player who can rack up yards on the ground. It also helps that Lance has three excellent weapons in George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, along with a top-10 offensive line.
Jimmy Garoppolo is the only person standing in Lance’s way. Luckily, the rookie's ADP is so low that drafting him is low-risk play. If Lance can’t win the starting job, he can easily be cut with little harm. But he has the talent to be a top-10 quarterback as soon as he wrests the starting job away from the oft-injured Garoppolo.
Top Fade: Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts (Rank QB22, ADP QB18)