• Can David Njoku keep the streak alive?: Njoku has six top-10 scoring weeks in his last eight games, can he add another in Week 16?
• A good matchup for Tucker Kraft: The Green Bay Packers’ rookie tight end has a favorable matchup against the Carolina Panthers this week.
• Dominate your fantasy leagues in 2023: For up-to-date draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
We’re one round down in the fantasy football playoffs and, hopefully, everyone still here has progressed courtesy of some help from their tight end picks. If you started one of our Week 15 picks, then there’s a good chance you did. David Njoku, Isaiah Likely, Jake Ferguson and Tyler Higbee averaged 15.6 fantasy points last week despite an average fantasy performance from Higbee. Take Higbee out of the equation, and it’s 18.2 fantasy points.
Week 16 presents some strong matchups to pick from, but it’s about being smart. The temptation is to zig while everyone else zags, but sometimes you just need to roll with what’s been working. There’s an element of both game plans here with our sleeper picks this week.
Tanner Hudson, Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: Pittsburgh Steelers
Hudson has been a quiet source of fantasy points for the last two months, averaging 8.5 fantasy points per game since the Week 9 victory against the Buffalo Bills. The Bengals aren’t the most tight-end-dependent team in the NFL and likely won’t be under Zack Taylor — or while they have an excellent trio of pass catchers at wide receiver in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. But since the Bills game, Hudson has an 86.4 receiving grade, the best on the team, and the second-most catches (29) in that time. Factor in Higgins playing just four games and it makes more sense, but Hudson is making the most of his opportunities.
With Chase officially out for the Week 16 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Hudson will likely factor heavily into the Bengals game plan once more. Jake Browning might not be Joe Burrow, but his willingness to get the ball to his tight end benefits those who pick up Hudson this week. He’s not going to get consistent yards after the catch, and his average depth of target is just 5.6 yards, but Hudson can get himself open on flat and out routes to pick up short yards. It’s not sexy, but the safe floor of points is, well, safe.
The Bengals have a tough matchup against a good Steelers defense in Week 16, but the Steelers are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends over the last month, and Hudson has a 30% matchup advantage too – the third-highest this week.
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Opponent: Houston Texans
Go back to the well, don’t forget what brought you to the dance, whatever analogy you want. It’s David Njoku. The Browns tight end is having a career year in 2023 and has already set career highs in catches (69), yards (704) and touchdowns (five). He’s the TE6 in fantasy scoring and is averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game across the last two months and 26.7 points in the last two games. He’s proving to be a potential league-winner, and as a result, we can’t fade him.
Njoku is currently benefiting from volume that most tight ends don’t receive, and while he’s had his fair share of drops, it’s clear that he’s a favorite target of Joe Flacco and even when Flacco isn’t playing well, he’s still getting the ball to Njoku. That’ll happen when you average 44 pass attempts per game. Njoku is also averaging 7.7 yards after the catch this season, fourth-most among all tight ends. He’s a real playmaker.
The Browns take on the Houston Texans in Week 16, and that presents another matchup worth taking advantage of. Njoku has a 12% matchup advantage against the Texans' defense, and that’s also a unit allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season. We’ve come to expect big things from Njoku recently, so let’s hope he doesn’t let us down.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Opponent: Arizona Cardinals
Expectations were high for Cole Kmet this season, as he was supposed to be a beneficiary of the Justin Fields breakout, but while the latter didn’t happen, Kmet has quietly gone about his business as the TE7 in 2023. He’s not a true sleeper, but he might just reach the threshold.
Kmet has eight top-10 scoring weeks on the season and has three in his last three games while averaging 12 fantasy points per game and catching 17 passes for 132 yards and a touchdown. He’s seeing the ball plenty too, posting at least six targets in six of his last seven games. With Fields showing a little sign of improvement during the back-end stretch of the season, it feels safe to say that Kmet is going to finish as a top-10 tight end once again.
The former second-round pick has an extremely favorable matchup this week too as the Bears take on the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals' defense is last in EPA per play allowed this season, and Kmet has a 21% matchup advantage. A potential eruption spot?
Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Tucker Kraft has been a constant within the Packers' offense for the last month. After playing 50% of the team's offensive snaps just twice prior to Week 12, Kraft has averaged 96.5% of the team's snaps since then. He’s essentially playing every down and he’s taking advantage of those moments.
Over the last four games, Kraft has caught 13 passes for 173 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game. During that stretch, Kraft is tied for the most red zone targets among all tight ends, and his two touchdown receptions were the results of red zone targets. Kraft’s big 6-foot-5 frame makes him an easy target in condensed areas of the field, but he’s adept at getting out in space and creating big plays. Since Week 12, Kraft is averaging 7.6 yards after the catch per reception, the same number as long-time favorite of this column Jake Ferguson, that’s sixth among all tight ends.
Kraft has a chance to repeat his recent success against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. The Panthers' defense has generally defended tight ends well this season, allowing just 10.44 fantasy points per game to tight ends, but Kraft has a 20% matchup advantage heading into the game. Best of luck on the battleground!
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.