Fantasy Football: QB matchups, streamer of the week, Week 12 rankings and more

• QB C.J. Stroud (83.7 PFF offense grade), Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Stroud is the league’s premier passer on unpressured dropbacks.

• QB Jordan Love (69.1 PFF passing grade), Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions: Love is unlikely to have the requisite passing volume for a fruitful fantasy outing.

• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!

Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

NFL Week 12 action is here. For fantasy football managers who passed on the elite quarterback tier, start-and-sit decisions must now be made. Below are two quarterbacks with advantageous matchups to target, two quarterbacks with difficult matchups to avoid and one streaming option possessing a top-12 finish in his range of outcomes. 

QB Matchups to Target

QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams

Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray (65.9 PFF offense grade) is a dual-threat, elite QB1 against Los Angeles’ vulnerable quarterback run-defense, coverage unit and blitz-dependent pass rush.

FanDuel implies Arizona to score 23.0 points.

Arizona lost their Week 6 game against Los Angeles 9-26 but head coach Jonathan Gannon surely noted then-starting quarterback Joshua Dobbs’ (85.1 PFF rushing grade) rushing success as the matchup’s lone bright spot. Dobbs averaged 6.7 yards per rushing attempt via four designed runs and three scrambles while totaling two explosive run plays at a 28.6% rate.

Both Arizona’s quarterback rushing 0.242 expected points added (EPA) per play and 51.0% success rate since Murray returned in Weeks 10 rank No. 3 among NFL team-level quarterback corps. Arizona’s latter rate is positively influenced by backup quarterback Clayton Tune’s (60.7 PFF rushing grade) one-yard Week 10 rushing touchdown, but Murray’s two-week impact is hardly overstated and Los Angeles’ quarterback run-defense is explosive-play friendly. 

Among 40 NFL quarterbacks with at least 12 rushing attempts, Murray’s 0.23 missed tackles forced per rushing attempt ties for No. 5 and his 6.5 yards per rushing attempt ranks No. 1. Los Angeles’ -0.130 EPA allowed per quarterback run-defense play is the eighth most among NFL teams and their 3.48-yard average depth of rushing-quarterback tackle ties for 13th deepest. 

Murray’s return to performance as a passer yields the No.1-ranked turnover-worthy-play rate (1.3%) among 42 NFL quarterbacks with at least 70 dropbacks. His 4.5% big-time-throw rate ranks No. 16, his 7.5 yards per passing attempt ranks No. 10 and his 10.4-yard average depth of target (aDot) ranks No. 2.

Los Angeles’ primary slot cornerback Cobie Durant (34.6 PFF slot-coverage grade) registered three “Limited Participant” practice designations last week and has a chance to return from his Week 8 shoulder stinger in Week 12. His potential arrival is fortuitous. Among 38 NFL defensive backs with at least 55 slot receiver-coverage snaps, Durant ranks No. 34 in yards allowed per coverage snap (2.29) and dead last in explosive pass plays allowed rate (7.4%). 

Los Angeles No. 1 cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon (41.8 PFF perimeter-coverage grade) ranks No. 42 or worse among 64 NFL cornerbacks with at least 85 perimeter wide receiver-coverage snaps in both yards allowed per coverage snap (2.13) and dead last in explosive pass plays allowed rate (6.1%). 

Arizona’s breakout tight end Trey McBride (82.8 PFF receiving grade) is primed for a high-scoring outing against a Los Angeles’ tight end-coverage unit that ranks No. 31 in allowed per coverage snap (9.10) and No. 29 in explosive pass plays allowed rate (19.7%). 

Los Angeles ineffectively attempts to mask its middling pass rush via the blitz, ranking just 18th in pass-rush productivity (32.3) among NFL teams. Murray’s 10.0% big-time-throw rate against the blitz ranks No. 1 among 41 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 blitzed dropbacks.

Murray will return QB1 value for the second consecutive week.

QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud (83.7 PFF offense grade) is an elite QB1 against Jacksonville’s pillow-fisted pass rush and middling coverage unit. 

The game’s 47.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 12’s third-highest. FanDuel implies Houston to score 23.0 points and 1.5-point underdogs.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Houston a 5.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 12’s 13th-best. Jacksonville’s pass rush ranks No. 23 or worse in pass-rush win rate (36.7%), quarterback pressure rate (32.0%) and pass-rush productivity (23.3).

Stroud mercilessly attacks downfield on unpressured dropbacks.

Stroud’s unpressured passing data among 34 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 unpressured dropbacks:

Stroud smartly focuses on the splash zone on unpressured dropbacks and does so with elite success. His 56 splash-zone targets on unpressured dropbacks rank No. 2 among NFL quarterbacks and his 97.8 PFF passing grade on such passing attempts ranks No. 2 among 28 NFL quarterbacks with at least 15 unpressured splash-zone-targeted passing attempts. 

The splash zone was first studied by then-Rotoworld analyst Hayden Winks in 2019 and named by Legendary Upside’s Pat Kerrane in Week 7, 2023. The term refers to the area of the field both between the painted numbers and at least 10-plus yards downfield. Targets thrown into the splash zone yield more fantasy points, on average, than those thrown along the sideline at an equivalent depth. 

Jacksonville’s pass defense ranks No. 15 in success rate allowed (45.7%), No. 14 in catch rate allowed (69.8%) and No. 22 in yards allowed per coverage snap (6.30). 

Stroud is an elite QB1 in Week 12.

QB Matchups to Avoid

QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love (69.1 PFF passing grade) is in for a low-volume, frequently-pressured outing against Detroit. He cannot be trusted to return QB1 value.

FanDuel implies Green Bay to score just 19.5 points. 

Detroit’s efficient ball-control offense helps limit the opposition’s possession time. Opponents average just 64.0 offensive plays per game, the fifth-fewest in the NFL. This will likely be a featured dynamic on Thursday; Detroit’s 7.5-point home-favorite FanDuel spread is Week 12’s third-largest spread Green Bay’s run defense depends on linebacker De’Vondre Campbell (77.6 PFF run-defense grade), who suffered a Week 11 neck stinger. His Week 12 availability is seriously jeopardized. 

An ankle sprain sidelined Campbell for Weeks 4-7 and the team’s run-defense unit completely collapsed. With Campbell active in Weeks 1-3 and 8-11, Green Bay ranks top 12 among NFL teams in EPA allowed per run-defense play (-0.130) success rate allowed (35.3%) and average depth of tackle (3.80 yards). With Campbell inactive in Weeks 4-7, the unit’s respective 0.015, 44.7% and 4.74 rates all rank outside the 25.

Detroit’s one-two running back punch in Jahmyr Gibbs (75.5 PFF rushing grade) and David Montgomery (81.2 PFF rushing grade) will efficiently knife through Green Bay’s softened interior. Among 50 NFL running backs with at least 50 rushing attempts, Gibbs’ 5.2 yards per rushing attempt rank No. 3 and his 3.2 yards after contact per rushing attempt tie for No. 7. Montgomery ranks top 10 in yards per rushing attempt (4.9), missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.22) and yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.2). 

PFF’s OL/DL chart gives Detroit a 31.0% run-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 12’s fifth-best.

Detroit’s pass-rush win rate (45.2%%), quarterback pressure rate (39.3%) and pass-rush productivity (28.6) rank Nos. 13, 5 and 9, respectively, among NFL teams. The unit is keyed by edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson (89.8 PFF pass-rush grade), whose respective 19.7% and 17.0% rates rank top eighth in the former two categories among 63 NFL edge rushers with at least 175 pass-rushing snaps. 

Love’s 59.1% adjusted completion rate and 5.9% turnover-worthy play rate on pressured dropbacks both rank outside the top 25 among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 60 pressured dropbacks. 

Love is a Week 12 QB2. 

QB Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns

Denver quarterback Russell Wilson (72.2 PFF passing grade) is a low-ceiling QB2 against Cleveland’s lockdown pass defense. 

The game’s hopeless 35.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 12’s third-lowest game total. FanDuel implies Denver to score 19.0 points.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Denver a -48.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 12’s second-worst. Cleveland’s pass rush ranks top three among NFL teams in pass-rush win rate (61.8%), quarterback pressure rate (43.0%) and pass-rush productivity (35.4). Denver left tackle Garett Bolles (82.8 PFF pass-blocking grade, ankle sprain) and left guard Ben Powers (62.1 PFF pass-blocking grade, foot injury) are playing through injuries.

Denver’s 8.8% allowed sack rate ranks sixth-highest among NFL teams despite Wilson operating as a committed check-down artist regardless of pass-rush pressure. Among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 60 pressured dropbacks, Wilson’s 43.5% short-of-the-sticks throwing rate ranks eighth highest.

His 43.5% short-of-the-sticks pressured throwing rate ranks eighth highest among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 60 pressured dropbacks and his 65.0%  short-of-the-sticks unpressured throwing rate ranks third-highest among 34 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 unpressured dropbacks.

Wilson’s timidity is unlikely to yield positive results against Cleveland’s blanketing coverage unit which ranks No. 1 in catch rate allowed (61.9%), No. 5 in yards allowed per coverage snap (5.20) and No. 4 in explosive pass plays allowed rate (10.3%). 

Wilson is a low-ceiling QB2 against Cleveland.

Streamer of the Week

QB Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Indianapolis quarterback Gardner Minshew (55.1 PFF passing grade) is due for a high-volume, streaming QB1 performance against Tampa Bay’s injury-depleted coverage unit. 

FanDuel implies Indianapolis to score 23.0 points.

Tampa Bay’s defensive injuries:

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Indianapolis an 8.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 12’s 11th-best.

Tampa Bay’s offense averages 6.2 offensive plays per drive, the 11th-most in the NFL, yet their 34.0% scoring-drive rate ranks No. 19. Indianapolis’ defense ranks No. 15 in EPA allowed per play (-0.052), No. 26 in success rate allowed (44.9%) and No. 22 in scoring-drive allowed rate (37.6%) which should facilitate a fruitful offensive outing for Tampa Bay and push Indianapolis’ own offensive pace.

Tampa Bay’s run defense ranks first in EPA allowed per play (-0.227), 16th in success rate allowed (37.4%) and 11th in average depth of tackle (3.72), and their pass rush’s 47.3% blitz rate ranks third. Tampa Bay linebacker Lavonte David’s (64.4 PFF pass-rush grade on blitzes) three NFL sacks via the blitz tie for the team lead. His likely absence hampers Tampa Bay’s blitzing efficacy but is unlikely to reduce its blitzing rate. Indianapolis should lean into its quick-passing game as a result.

Among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 55 blitzed dropbacks, Minshew’s 2.51-second average time to throw ranks No. 13.

Among 41 NFL wide receivers with at least 20 targets on blitzed dropbacks, wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr.’s (73.5 PFF receiving grade) 76.7% catch rate and 62.5% contested catch rate both rank top 10 and Josh Down’s (76.0 PFF receiving grade) 5.7 yards after the catch per reception on such targets rank No. 14. Both players should play efficiently against Tampa Bay’s ruined secondary.

Minshew is on the QB1 streaming radar as an efficient, high-volume passer.