Fantasy News & Analysis

Week 2 breakout candidates and potential projection-beaters

DETROIT, MI - JANUARY 01: Ty Montgomery #88 of the Green Bay Packers celebrates a fourth quarter touchdown during the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on January 1, 2017 in Detroit, Michigan. Green Bay defeated Detroit 31-24. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

Fantasy Points Per Opportunity might be my favorite stat at PFF. It helps you uncover players that are overly reliant on volume (high fantasy points scored but low PPO), or players who could become fantasy league-winners if they get more volume (low fantasy points scored but high PPO).

If you followed along with this article last year, you’ll know that we were unable to unearth Tyreek Hill well before the rest of the fantasy community. We hope to find another diamond in the rough like that again this year.

I’ve also developed a proprietary stat using PFF’s data — Fantasy Points Per Opportunity against (PPO against). This stat isn’t found anywhere else on PFF’s site or anywhere else on the web. It lives in this article, and I’ll be sharing the full list with you each week. It’s color-coded to help you quickly identify which opponents are the best or worst against specific positions.

Below are a handful of players that could shine in Week 2 thanks to a strong matchup from a PPO perspective. (To see individual player PPO scores on a weekly or season-long basis, check out the Fantasy Stats section in our Tools lab.)

Running backs

The Patriots gave up 0.99 PPO to running backs last week, including the most PPO exclusively through the air and exclusively through the ground. Mark Ingram ranked 27th out of 66 qualifying running backs last week (min. 25 percent snaps) in terms of PPO, and he could be in line for a big game against New England in Week 2 — especially if Dont’a Hightower sits.

Ty Montgomery scored a respectable 0.27 PPO against a strong Seahawks defense in Week 1, and now he draws a cake matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, who gave up 0.50 PPO to opposing running backs last week (third-most). He’s an auto-include in every lineup you make for Week 2.

The Jets gave up 0.43 PPO to enemy backs last week, sixth-most in the NFL. This week they draw Marshawn Lynch, who gained 0.30 PPO (26th among running backs) while touching the ball 19 times in his Oakland debut. Lynch could turn back the clock to Beast Mode days in Week 2. The Jets no longer have a scary run defense.

The Broncos gave up 0.40 PPO to opposing backs in Week 1, eighth-most in the league. Their run defense is not nearly as good as their pass defense. Ezekiel Elliott gets the Broncos in Week 2. He should smash.

Wide receivers

Stefon Diggs crushed in Week 1, catching seven of eight targets for 93 yards and two scores — and he did all of that damage in just one half of play. He scored 0.68 PPO, third-best among qualifying wideouts. This week he faces the Steelers, who were middling against opposing wideouts last week and gave up a strong game of Corey Coleman. Diggs could put up two big games in a row.

The team Diggs destroyed was the New Orleans Saints, who gave up the most PPO to opposing wideouts in Week 1. Up next for the Saints is the New England Patriots. Look for Brandin Cooks to light up his former team in Week 2. Cooks scored 0.23 last week, tied for 29th out of 92 receivers.

The Bengals gave up 0.26 PPO to opposing receivers in Week 1, seventh-most in the league. DeAndre Hopkins draws Cincinnati in Week 2 on Thursday night. Hopkins ranked 25th out of 92 receivers with 0.25 PPO last week, and he led the position with 15 targets. He’s primed for a huge game.

The Colts were cooked by the Rams’ receivers in Week 1, giving up 0.30 PPO. Up next are Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, and the David Johnson-less Arizona Cardinals. Fitzgerald and Brown were average in terms of their own PPO last week, but this week’s matchup is ripe.

Tight ends

Look for Charles Clay to have a big game against the Panthers this week. Carolina gave up 0.54 PPO to opposing tight ends in Week 1, most in the NFL.

Eric Ebron might have his first big game of the season on Monday night. He draws the Giants, who gave up 0.32 PPO to opposing tight ends in Week 1, sixth-most in the league.

The Saints got shredded by tight ends in Week 1, giving up 0.41 PPO, fourth-most in the league. Rob Gronkowski should have no problem rebounding from a so-so Week 1 performance.

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