Odell Beckham Jr. signed with the Los Angeles Rams Thursday, as Los Angeles continues to be all-in on winning a Super Bowl this year. While this could lead to some exciting games on the field, his presence might not be the most helpful from a fantasy perspective.
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Impact on Odell Beckham Jr.
This landing spot is likely one of the worst for his fantasy value, as he joins a Rams' loaded WR corps that features Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Van Jefferson. The Rams use 11 personnel 79% of the time, so three of these four wide receivers will be on the field on any given play, and Kupp is playing too well to be taken off the field outside of garbage time. DeSean Jackson was barely able to be a part of the rotation, which led to his release.
|2021||290||66.4||59th of 98|
|2020||316||75.3||39th of 112|
|2019||990||68.7||58th of 102|
|2018||716||90.0||5th of 108|
|2017||211||69.2||49th of 107|
|2016||1002||87.0||6th of 104|
|2015||996||88.1||10th of 101|
|2014||775||90.8||2nd of 100|
Chances are he will overtake Jefferson at some point, but that could only lead to him playing around 70% of Los Angeles' offensive snaps. In most other potential landing spots, he would have an easier time seeing the field.
There also might not be enough targets to go around. Kupp has already reached over 100 targets this season and is the second-highest graded receiver in the NFL this season, and it’s unlikely his target share will decrease.
It’s unlikely that Beckham will see enough snaps in a given week to be a fantasy starter. He will have some splash weeks, but they will come at unpredictable times. He should still remain on fantasy rosters, especially if a Rams receiver gets injured, but I would look to trade him if someone in your league is very excited by this move.
Impact on the rest of the Rams
This can only mean good things for quarterback Matthew Stafford. If Beckham is playing well, then this gives him another option in Los Angeles' potent passing attack, and if he’s not playing well, then he won’t play much or affect negatively Stafford.
Similarly, this shouldn’t have a major impact on Kupp, as he’s played too well this season to lose any of his target volume.
However, it does have a big impact on Jefferson. He was a waiver wire target recently, especially after the release of Jackson, but Beckham will cut into his playing time significantly. It's smart to hold onto Jefferson for one or two more weeks to see what his playing time looks like. If he drops below 60% of offensive snaps, he can be cut from fantasy rosters.
The Beckham addition could also have a notable impact on Woods, who has been more consistent in recent weeks after a slow start, including back-to-back top-12 finishes. He could not only lose a few targets but some playing time as well. He saw just 19 of 26 pass routes in Week 1, when the Rams tried to fit four wide receivers into their rotation, and it could happen again. He should remain a starter each week in fantasy football, but his rest-of-season ranking will take a hit next update.
Finally, Beckham's presence will minimally impact running back Darrell Henderson and tight end Tyler Higbee. Los Angeles is unlikely to change how it runs its offense, and defenses are unlikely to change how many players they leave in the box. Henderson will remain a must-start each week while Higbee will still be a good option depending on the matchup.
Stafford is the only obvious winner in fantasy football from this move. Beckham’s fantasy value takes a hit compared to where it was when he was healthy in Cleveland, or where it could have been in other landing spots. Jefferson and Woods’ fantasy value also takes a hit.