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NFL Week 13 DFS Cheat Sheet: Five recommended plays for all contests

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (9) against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 13 action is here. Here are five recommended plays to help you win big in DraftKings GPP and cash game competitions.

WR CHRISTIAN WATSON, GREEN BAY PACKERS ($5,200 ON DRAFTKINGS) @ CHICAGO BEARS

  • Green Bay is a 3.5-point road favorite and has a 24.0-point implied team total against quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ (75.5 PFF passing grade) favorite opponent.
  • Over the past three years, Rodgers has averaged 244.2 passing yards, 3.2 passing touchdowns and 0.0 interceptions per game against Chicago.
  • Among Rodgers’ 63 career passing touchdowns thrown versus Chicago, 29 were scored in goal-to-go situations. 
  • Breakout rookie wide receiver Christian Watson (70.9 PFF receiving grade) stands to benefit from Rodgers’ propensity to dominate his division rival. 
  • PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Green Bay’s offensive line, sans left tackle David Bakhtiari (86.4 PFF pass-blocking grade), a massive 26.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, fifth-best on the week.
  • Watson’s $5,200 DraftKings salary is a dreamy $3,700 short of the maximum.
  • PFF’s ownership projections put Watson at a 5.2% rostership rate, offering DraftKings users a no-brainer GPP tournament play who should also be fired up as a differentiating cash-game option. 
  • Watson’s rookie campaign was slowed by early-season knee, ankle and concussion issues, but things came together for a Week 10 breakout (32.7 PPR points). 
  • The table below ranks Watson’s receiving data in parentheses among 74 NFL wide receivers with at least 10 targets in Weeks 10-12.
PFF Receiving Grade Catch % – Contested Catch % Per Routes Run %: Tgts – Yds YAC/Rec. Explosive 15-Plus-Yard Pass Plays
77.2 (No. 14) 60.0% (T-No. 58) – 80.0% (T-No. 13) 26.0% (No. 16) – 3.44 (No. 2) 7.3 (No. 8) 6 (T-No. 11)
  • Watson runs routes with a 39.2% wide-left plurality rate. His 32.9% wide-right rate and 27.8% slot rate are close behind, giving him complete access to Chicago’s ill-prepared cornerback trio.
  • Starting slot cornerback Kyler Gordon (43.6) and stud strong safety Jaquan Brisker (70.4 PFF coverage grade) have both been ruled out, having failed to clear the league’s concussion protocol for the second week in a row. 
  • Former first-team All-Pro (2018) free safety Eddie Jackson (74.3 PFF coverage grade) is out for the year after suffering a foot injury in Week 12. 
  • Chicago’s pass defense was struggling prior to the injuries, but the secondary is now in dire straits. The table below ranks Chicago’s coverage data in parentheses among NFL teams.
PFF Coverage Grade  Catch % Allowed  Yds Allowed/Cov. Snap Explosive Pass Plays Allowed % Open Target %
54.9 (No. 28) 73.4% (No. 26) 7.06 (No. 30) 17.3% (No. 29) 62.3% (No. 29)

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