Fantasy football mock drafts: A full redraft with all the rookies in place

“April is the cruelest month, breeding lilacs out of the dead land, mixing memory and desire, stirring dull roots with spring rain. Winter kept us warm, covering Earth in forgetful snow, feeding a little life with dried tubers.” – T.S. Eliot

I was told by a high school teacher that when Eliot wrote these lines in The Waste Land he was speaking of his own battles with depression. I like to re-imagine these lines in terms of my own symptoms of withdrawal following the end of fantasy season. Despite the harsh weather winter provides, it’s too often negated by the joys and excitement fantasy football provides us. February is not the cruelest month because the season is finally over. April instead earns that distinction because we know how close we are and, yet, how slow those final days seem to drag on. But, alas, here we are in May. The NFL draft is over and fantasy season begins again.

Our next several months will be spent tea-leaf-reading coach-speak and agonizing over the various draft strategies we may or may not employ. Earlier this week we concluded a staff mock draft. This will ultimately look far different than our drafts in July, but today, it is a mock draft at its most pure — not yet corrupted by fantasy group-think or something a head coach had said that was inevitably blown-out of proportion and taken far out of context.

As much as I love inventing new stats or agonizing over rookie landing spots, there’s nothing I’d rather do at present than review our most recent mock draft. If you’re a true degenerate such as myself, real-life drafts are currently taking place at MyFantasyLeague here.

Round 1

Round 1 went pretty much as expected. The three “uber-backs” were selected in the first three picks, followed by four consecutive wide receivers. After A.J. Green fell at No. 7, my first tier of players was gone and I was left picking between Melvin Gordon and Mike Evans from the start of my second tier of players. Given the lack of depth behind Gordon, I feel strongly about his potential as a bell-cow running back on, what’s looking like, one of the most potent offenses in football.

Round 2

There were relatively few surprises in Round 2, outside of Brandon Marianne Lee selecting rookie running back Leonard Fournette. I’m not as in love with the landing spot as she appears to be, but I do understand the appeal. The Jaguars are likely shifting to a more run-first approach in 2017, and Fournette projects to dominate goal-line carries as early as Week 1, and in standard leagues his deficiencies as a receiver are far less detrimental. Coming off of their pedestrian 2016 seasons, I also would have preferred a better discount on DeAndre Hopkins (2.08) and Allen Robinson (2.11).

Round 3

In the last round, we saw a rookie running back get drafted too high for my liking. In the third round, rookie fever hit pandemic-status as three more rookie running backs went off the board. Christian McCaffrey going 3.01 seemed like a reach, especially given the standard format, for a running back projected to do most of his damage in the passing game, while likely splitting carries with Jonathan Stewart. Soon after (3.04), we saw rookie Joe Mixon get selected by Michael Moore. Several picks later, at 3.12, Dalvin Cook went off the board. I think both running backs are fairly safe bets to lead their team in running back touches by the end of the year, but still feel hesitant taking them over more well-established veterans still on the board.

Rounds 4-6

I wasn’t in love with Jon Moore’s selection of the inconsistent and inefficient Donte Moncrief at 4.01, especially after his general manager’s most-recent comments. Over the last three seasons, among all 54 wide receivers with at least 200 targets, Moncrief ranks bottom-six in both yards per route run and yards per target. I also felt like Derrick Henry was a bit of a reach for a running back who, in all likelihood, will be playing backup to or be stuck in a committee with Demarco Murray this season.

However, perhaps the worst pick of this range belongs to me, selecting C.J. Anderson at 5.08 — just hours before the Denver Broncos signed Jamaal Charles. At this point, with running back talent drying up, I realized I needed to shift my strategy to more of a “zero-RB”-approach (or rather, one-RB with Gordon on my team.) I felt slightly better about my team after drafting Tom Brady in the next round at 6.05. After trading for Brandin Cooks, this might be Brady’s best offense on paper since the Randy Moss Golden Era. He finished third in fantasy points per game last season without Cooks and without Rob Gronkowski for 50 percent of his games. The next pick, by Pat Thorman, again brought me to a state of T.S. Eliot-like melancholy. I must have been using a set of outdated rankings, not realizing Marshawn Lynch was still on the board – a steal at 6.06.

Rounds 7-10

At the 6.12 and 7.01 turn, Mike Castiglione selected Chiefs’ rookie running back Kareem Hunt and Chargers’ sophomore tight end Hunter Henry. Chiefs’ incumbent starting running back, Spencer Ware, went off the board at 5.05. Of the two backs, I prefer Hunt, even if we excluded his discount. Few landing spots provide more fantasy value than locking up the starting running back job in an Andy Reid offense, and while I’m not sure Hunt is an immediate contributor, I think he’ll be the more valuable back to own by the time the fantasy playoffs rolls around. With the selection of Henry, Mike wrote, “What Scott said about the Year 2 tight end jump.” Here, Mike is referring to an article I wrote earlier in the season where I explain, “Henry just posted the 13th-best fantasy season by a rookie tight end ever. On average, tight end fantasy production increases by 86 percent from Year 1 to Year 2.” Again, Thorman got a steal, this time in DeSean Jackson at 7.07, forcing me into Larry Fitzgerald at 7.08.

Rounds 11-14

I really liked the selections of Dak Prescott at 11.12, Phillip Rivers at 12.04, Ben Roethlisberger at 12.09, and Derek Carr at 14.03. This appears to be the sweet spot for “late-round QB” teams. Not feeling incredibly comfortable with my running back stable of Frank Gore and C.J. Anderson fighting over RB2 status after Melvin Gordon, I began making dart throws at high-upside low-ceiling running backs for my “one-RB” team. After hating on all of the rookie running back picks in Rounds 2 and 3, I love the upside in Joe Williams at 14.08. I also liked Walton Spurlin’s pick of Jason Witten at 14.02. Already we’d had three rookie tight ends get taken off the board, but I’d prefer old reliable to all of them.

Rounds 15-16

Though I did like Spurlin’s pick of Witten in the last round, I think my selection of Jack Doyle 16.05 was one of the big steals of the draft. Though dependable, Witten certainly lacks Doyle’s upside. I tried treating this as if it were truly a real-life draft. This is why I did not select a back-up quarterback, a kicker, or defense. If I were in an actual draft in May (with waivers), I’d rather not have those positions occupying roster spots for the next four months. Instead I’ll likely continue to add and drop the various buzzed-about fliers, hoping someone sticks or I can trade one away for an upgrade somewhere else. Several days before Week 1, I’ll drop the two players I feel least comfortable about for the top kicker in my rankings and the defense with the most attractive Week 1 schedule. I’ll continue to stream these two positions throughout the rest of the season, or until I’ve found an every-week starter.