- Jalen Hurts is the safest bet at the position: He has finished among the top eight quarterbacks in fantasy points per game in each of the past five seasons, a mark only Josh Allen can match over that span.
- Trevor Lawrence is priced below his production: He finished sixth among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game last season at 20.6, yet he is being drafted outside the top 10 at the position.
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Finding value is about more than identifying talented players. It requires pinpointing situations where talent, opportunity and cost align. These three quarterbacks check all three boxes and have the potential to dramatically outperform their current ADPs in 2026.
ADP listed is a consensus from ESPN, Yahoo! and Sleeper.
Last updated: Friday, Aug. 21
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 5.05)
Hurts has finished among the top eight quarterbacks in fantasy points per game in each of the past five seasons, a feat only Josh Allen can match over that span. Lamar Jackson has done so four times and Patrick Mahomes three times, making Hurts the second-most consistent fantasy quarterback of the group behind Allen — and the youngest.
All four quarterbacks had down seasons in 2025, but there are reasons to believe the others face more headwinds entering 2026. Mahomes is recovering from a torn ACL and LCL, with his Week 1 availability uncertain, while Jackson has an injury history and an aging supporting cast. The concerns surrounding Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce in Kansas City are also well documented. That context makes Hurts one of the safer options at the position.
Still, 2025 was below his usual standard. His 7.1 yards per attempt was a career low, while his 26.3 rushing yards per game represented a sharp decline from the previous season and was roughly half his career-high mark. He also scored fewer rushing touchdowns, offsetting that decline with more passing scores. That was positive for Philadelphia’s offense but less valuable for fantasy managers in leagues that award four points per passing touchdown.
The Eagles ranked outside the top 10 in PFF offensive team grade for the first time since 2020 and finished below the league average in points scored. Philadelphia traded A.J. Brown and replaced him with Makai Lemon, Dontayvion Wicks, Hollywood Brown and tight end Eli Stowers. Even without Brown, the overall talent on the roster gives Philadelphia the potential to field a top-10 offense. New offensive coordinator Sean Mannion has also indicated that Hurts’ rushing ability will remain a central part of the scheme, giving him a strong chance to bounce back toward his typical fantasy range.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 8.05)
Lawrence spent four years as the Jaguars' starter to mixed results, with some stretches where he looked like a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback and others where he played like a backup. In 2022 and 2023, his fantasy production made him a high-end backup. But in 2024, his passing yards per game fell by more than 45 amid lower volume, and then an injury cut his season short.
He became a top sleeper quarterback in 2025 after the Jaguars hired Liam Coen as head coach and drafted Travis Hunter with the second overall pick to pair with Brian Thomas Jr., who mostly excelled after Lawrence's injury. Lawrence finished fourth in fantasy points and sixth in points per game at 20.6, though that owed more to his connection with Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange than to Thomas and Hunter. Lawrence also set career highs in rushing attempts, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns.
Some regression in Lawrence’s nine rushing touchdowns is reasonable to expect, but his overall outlook should be similar to last season. Lawrence will have all five of his receivers available at once, allowing for a rotation and no single player for a defense to key on.
That should make Lawrence a top-10 option again, yet he is being drafted outside the top 10 since there are several quarterbacks to feel good about this season. That makes him a strong value at his current ADP.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 9.04)
Purdy has consistently outperformed his ADP in fantasy points per game, ranking among the top 12 quarterbacks in each of his three seasons as a starter. He has done so both with elite receiving options such as Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey on the field together and during stretches when many of his intended weapons were injured. Last season, his wide receiver corps consisted primarily of Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, Demarcus Robinson and Kendrick Bourne.
Despite that track record, Purdy is currently being drafted outside the top 12 quarterbacks. His play suggests he belongs comfortably inside that group. His 91.1 PFF offensive grade over the past three seasons ranks sixth among quarterbacks, trailing only Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert.
San Francisco invested heavily in its receiving corps this offseason, adding veterans Mike Evans and Christian Kirk, drafting De'Zhaun Stribling in the second round and bringing Samuel back. That leaves Demarcus Robinson as the only receiver who played for San Francisco last season and is expected to remain part of the rotation.
The biggest concern is how heavily the offense relies on aging veterans. McCaffrey, Kyle Juszczyk, Evans, Kittle and Trent Williams are all among the oldest starters at their respective positions. If one or more begins to decline, San Francisco will need its younger players to step up to prevent the offense from taking a significant step backward.
Purdy is one of several undervalued quarterbacks available later in drafts, making it easier to wait at the position.
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