Fantasy Football: How 2024 NFL Draft's safety class stacks up using key stable metrics

• Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin shines: The top-ranked safety on the PFF big board earns high marks as both a coverage defender and in run defense.

• Javon Bullard’s versatility translates to strong marks: Playing both as a primary slot defender and then safety in Georgia’s system, Bullard was able to score highly in key stable metric categories.

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With the NFL offseason officially underway, so is 2024 NFL Draft season. Plenty of fantasy football general managers are building out their rookie draft boards for dynasty purposes.

Looking at how each position stacks up against one another from an analytics standpoint is just one of the many tools to consider during the evaluation process. This series focuses purely on the key stable metrics that translate more often than not from college to the NFL. It's a way for dynasty managers, and fantasy managers, in general, to get familiar with this year’s rookie class.

A few notes about how this series will work:

• Rankings are based entirely on how these players performed in PFF’s stable metrics over the past two seasons.
• Athletic ability and size are not taken into account for this process. Again, this is just one of many evaluation tools to consider.
• This list includes all 26 linebackers from the PFF big board but does not provide any weight to projected draft capital, competition level or their overall ranking, though that context will often be provided.

TOP-10 SAFETIES IN PFF COVERAGE GRADE SINCE 2022

Miami’s James Williams owns the top PFF coverage grade over the past two seasons among this safety class, as he posted back-to-back 85.0-plus PFF coverage grades after a strong 78.1 mark in his 2021 season. Williams is just the 12th-ranked safety on the PFF big board and while he’s delivered strong coverage grades, his PFF run-defense grades are among the bottom of the class.

USC’s Calen Bullock is a top-five safety on the PFF big board and has earned coverage grades above 82.0 over the past two years, including an 89.0 mark in 2022 that was the sixth-best in the FBS for his position. Much like Williams, Bullock’s run defense marks compared to this year’s class are among the lowest of the group.

TOP-10 SAFETIES IN PFF COVERAGE GRADE WITH NO PRESSURE SINCE 2022

Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin is the top-ranked safety on the PFF big board and excelled in these coverage categories over the past two years with a significant improvement in that regard this past season. Nubin’s 90.1 PFF coverage grade in 2023 led all FBS safeties, and that continued when the opposing quarterback had a clean pocket and time to operate, where Nubin delivered the highest forced incompletion rate of this year’s class (25.8%).

Georgia’s Javon Bullard is the second safety on the PFF big board and has delivered consistently strong PFF grades over the past two seasons. Facing quarterbacks who aren’t pressured made no difference, as Bullard came up with eight forced incompletions (tied for second-most) since 2022 on 52 coverage targets.

TOP-10 SAFETIES IN PFF COVERAGE GRADE ON PASSES OF THREE SECONDS OR LESS SINCE 2022

Bullard and Bullock share the top spot in this coverage category of facing passes coming out quickly. Bullock faces the most such instances (687) in this class.

Nubin isn’t far behind and while his PFF coverage grade here ranks third, he once again posts some really impressive metrics when faced with these situations. He has allowed just a 44.3 NFL passer rating and 0.29 yards per coverage target, which are both the best marks in this class when facing passes thrown in three seconds or less.

TOP-10 SAFETIES IN PFF COVERAGE GRADE WHEN LINED UP AS A SAFETY SINCE 2022

Bullock has played the second-most snaps among this year’s class from a free safety alignment and has earned the top coverage grade while doing so since 2022. He has allowed just a 41.7% completion rate when targeted, which is the second-best mark in the class among safeties who have faced at least 15 targets (24). His six forced incompletions from those alignments since 2022 are the third most in the class.

Miami’s Kamren Kinchens is the fifth-ranked safety on the PFF big board and has performed well from his deep safety alignment, but never better than his class-leading 91.5 PFF coverage grade from 2022, which was the highest mark among this year’s class of safeties for a season in that alignment. Unfortunately, Kinchens' 2023 wasn’t quite as strong when he appeared in 10 games and only managed a 59.5 coverage grade when lining up deep.

TOP-10 SAFETIES IN PFF COVERAGE GRADE WHEN LINED UP IN THE SLOT SINCE 2022

Nebraska’s Omar Brown didn’t have a starting opportunity in 2022 but in 2023 he became the team’s primary slot defender and thrived in the role. He allowed just a 54.7% completion rate and zero touchdowns on 53 targets faced in his coverage. Brown comes in lower on the PFF big board as the 16th-ranked safety right now.

Two Georgia safeties, Javon Bullard and Tykee Smith also delivered strong performances when lined up in the slot, with both players allowing below a 60% completion rate and below 0.90 yards per coverage snap when targeted which are among the best marks in the class.

TOP-10 SAFETIES IN PFF COVERAGE GRADE WHEN LINED UP IN THE BOX SINCE 2022

Whether Nubin was lined up deep or in the box, he earned top marks in this year’s class as a coverage defender. His work in the box over the past two years wasn’t as much as others in this class, but he tallied up with more interceptions (three) from that alignment than any of his peers.

TOP-10 SAFETIES IN FORCED INCOMPLETION RATE SINCE 2022

While Tyler Owens leads the group in forced incompletion rate, he comes in ranked just 19th on the PFF big board and his overall PFF coverage grade over the past two seasons is the lowest of the entire safety class.

Nubin appears near the top once again, coming up with top-five PFF coverage grades in multiple stable metric categories due to owning one of the highest forced incompletion rates of the class. Nubin has been so good in this regard that he’s allowed the lowest completion rate of the class (32.5%) and the lowest yards allowed per coverage snap (0.35) since 2022.

TOP-10 SAFETIES IN PFF RUN-DEFENSE GRADE SINCE 2022

Nubin didn’t just earn high marks as a coverage defender, as he tallied a top-five PFF run-defense grade for this group as well, showcasing that he is one of the better all-around players at his position in this year’s draft class.

TOP-10 SAFETIES IN RUN STOP RATE SINCE 2022

Nubin is the only top-five safety on the PFF big board to crack the top 10 in run stop rate, though Utah’s Sione Vaki is sixth on the big board and not far behind in run stop rate. Vaki delivered a strong 2022 season where he posted a 79.2 PFF run-defense grade but unfortunately followed that up with just a 57.3 rmark in 2023. His 4.12-yard average depth of tackle against the run was the second-best of this year’s class since 2022, behind only Cole Bishop, his teammate at Utah and ninth overall safety on the PFF big board.

COMBINED CONSENSUS RANKING OF ALL STABLE METRICS SINCE 2022

Context

Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin was the clear winner across the stable metric categories over the past two years, finishing inside the top-five in seven of nine categories, and outside the top 10 just once. He is the top-ranked safety on the PFF big board, and his numbers speak for themselves over the past two years, as he allowed the lowest completion rate (32.5%), passer rating (40.4) and yards per coverage snap (0.35) among this year’s class.

Georgia’s Javon Bullard is the No. 2 ranked safety on the PFF big board and cracks the top three across the stable metric categories. Bullard has experience lining up in multiple positions for Georgia, having been a primary slot defender in 2022 and then more traditional safety in 2023. He finished both seasons with strong coverage grades, including an 88.4 this past season which ranked tied for seventh in the FBS at his position.

Washington State’s Jaden Hicks is the third-ranked safety on the PFF big board, though he cracked the top 10 in just two stable metric categories over the past two years — box coverage grade and run stop rate. Hicks was utilized a lot more in the box in 2023 (58%) so it bodes well that he was able to thrive in the two key metrics where those skills are needed most.

USC’s Calen Bullock is the No. 4 safety on the PFF big board, excelling as a coverage defender over the past two seasons but struggling as a run defender. Bullock has one of the lankier frames in this class, which allows him to make plays on the ball in the air and stick with receivers downfield, but when asked to come down and play the run or hold up in the box has been where his weaknesses lie. While he posted three top-three marks in the stable coverage metric categories, he ranked last and second last among this class in run defense grade (49.5) and run stop rate (1.0%), respectively.