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Hermsmeyer: Air Yards Buy-Low Model, Week 8

East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) runs with the ball as New York Giants cornerback Adoree' Jackson (22) defends during the first quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

  • Moore shines in Week 7: REDACTED (DJ Moore) was the WR 9 on the week and on the Milly Maker Winning Lineup.
  • McLaurin and Kirk beat projections: Terry McLaurin and Christian Kirk both had a solid week, beating their consensus projections and posting scores over 17 points.
  • Lamb tops Week 8 buy-low candidates: CeeDee Lamb tops the list for Week 8.
Estimated reading time: 6 minutes


Week 7 Review

The model took the biggest victory lap over me in its eight-year history this week, as REDACTED (DJ Moore) not only crushed his consensus projection by almost eight points at a cost of just $4,900 on DraftKings, but he ended up on the Milly Maker winning lineup (congrats rikkidee). Once again, I have been frog-marched into the light, grabbed by the scruff of the neck and forcibly shown the folly of trusting narratives in addition to the value in betting against the consensus (when there is evidence to do so). The upside is just so high, and apparently so was I for REDACTING him.

At least I did trust the model on Terry McLaurin. The narrative coming into Week 7 was that Washington would struggle to tie its laces on offense, and he turned in a very solid game. Christian Kirk also rebounded in another unfortunate loss for the Jaguars. Jacksonville is underperforming this year in the win column, but the team continues to field an offense that is in the upper third of the league. In fact, all three Jacksonville players on the buy-low candidates list beat their consensus projections in Week 7. I will continue to buy low on the Jags offense for the rest of the season.

Here are the full results for Week 7, with players who beat their consensus projections in bold.

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