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Hermsmeyer: Air Yards Buy-Low Model, Week 6

Tampa, Florida, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (11) catches a pass defended by Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Lavonte David (54) in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Week 5 Review

Week 5 was another down week for the model. It did not predict Gabriel Davis would have the breakout week he enjoyed while Marquez Valdes-Scantling and George Pickens were just medium hits at around 15 PPR points each.

The model was on to something in highlighting that a passing explosion was coming for Kansas City, it just didn’t foresee that all the touchdowns would go to Travis Kelce. Darkness.

It’s been a down year for scoring overall in the NFL this season, and that is affecting the ceiling for all receivers across the league. However, the more defenses try to take away the other team’s perceived top receiver (often the one that was most recently productive), the more opportunities will open up for players the buy low identifies.

We’re at two very good weeks and two disappointing weeks through four (there was no model Week 1), and if the past is any indication, better days are ahead.

Here are the full results, with players who beat their consensus projections in bold:


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