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Hermsmeyer: Air Yards Buy-Low Model, Week 10

Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) heads upfield past Green Bay Packers safety Darnell Savage (26) after catching a pass in the third quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

  • Buy-low model hits: Week 9 was a fantastic week for the model. It identified both the WR1 and the TE1 on the week.
  • Darnell Mooney and Amon-Ra St. Brown on Milly Maker lineup: For the first time in its history, two buy-low receivers were in the Milly Maker winning lineup.
  • REDACTED‘s return: Kyle Pitts is back. No one told him Halloween is over. I wish he would just go away.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Week 9 Review

This past week was a historical performance for the air yards buy-low model. For the first time since I started running this strange artifact of game theory and math in 2016, it spit out two receivers that ended up on the Milly Maker winning lineup (congrats PetrGibbons). Incredible.

Darnell Mooney and Amon-Ra St. Brown were both present on the winning team – though, to be fair, St. Brown turned in a less-than-stellar performance. It’s also worth noting that Joe Mixon is Week 9's real hero, and if you didn’t have him in your lineup, you weren’t winning anything. Still, Mooney was rostered on just 9% of teams. Couple that with the facts that Davante Adams was the WR1 whole Dallas Goedert was the TE1 on the week, it really was a monumental week for the buy low.

I gave the model an “atta boy,” so it's ready to run through a wall for us again.

Here are the full results, with players who beat their consensus projections in bold:


Player Tm Proj. Actual
Davante Adams LV 18.3 36.6
Dallas Goedert PHI 11.3 24
Darnell Mooney CHI 11.6 17.5
Curtis Samuel WAS 11.4 17.1
DK Metcalf SEA 13.9 14.7
Chris Godwin TB 14.9 10.7
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 15.5 9.5
Zay Jones JAX 9.8 9
Gerald Everett LAC 10.4 8.6

Week 10 Air Yards Buy-Low Model

Below is the list of buy-lows, sorted by consensus projections.


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