News & Analysis

Dynasty rookie fantasy values before the draft

Sep 16, 2017; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Calvin Ridley (3) catches a pass and scores against Colorado State Rams during the first quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Ranking incoming rookies among current NFL players is a critical part of dynasty fantasy football rookie draft preparation. Rookie picks are among the most traded assets during the dynasty offseason. How can you make value-building trades without a sense for which veterans you’d rather own than certain rookies, and vice versa? It would be like accepting an offer on your used car without any sense of its actual value. Obviously, the recommended process is to check the current Blue Book value before establishing what you’d consider to be an acceptable sale price (or purchase price if you’re the one buying).

The PFF dynasty team’s composite rankings have 12 rookies valued as top-100 dynasty players pre-NFL draft. I’ve painted a picture of the ceiling, floor, and current market value for each of the rookies today. I expect a few more rookies to crack the top-100 following the draft and I also expect the values of most of these players to change once the rankings team has more information about each player’s NFL team situation and actual draft round. Generally speaking, rookie values tend to increase once dynasty rankers have enough information to help project year one production.

Rookies in the pre-NFL draft PFF composite top-100 dynasty rankings

Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Overall Dynasty Rank: No. 4
Highest Rank: No. 4
Lowest Rank: No. 10
Equivalent Startup ADP: 1.04
Key veterans in same value tier: Todd Gurley, Antonio Brown

Derrius Guice, RB, Louisiana State

Overall Dynasty Rank: No. 39
Highest Rank: No. 32
Lowest Rank: No. 55
Equivalent Startup ADP: 4.03
Key veterans in same value tier: Derrick Henry, JuJu Smith-Schuster

Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia

Overall Dynasty Rank: No. 50
Highest Rank: No. 33
Lowest Rank: No. 76
Equivalent Startup ADP: 5.02
Key veterans in same value tier: Dez Bryant, Carlos Hyde

Sony Michel, RB, Georgia

Overall Dynasty Rank: No. 57
Highest Rank: No. 45
Lowest Rank: No. 71
Equivalent Startup ADP: 5.09
Key veterans in same value tier: Tevin Coleman, Devin Funchess

Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State

Overall Dynasty Rank: No. 58
Highest Rank: No. 41
Lowest Rank: No. 73
Equivalent Startup ADP: 5.10
Key veterans in same value tier: Devin Funchess, LeSean McCoy

D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland

Overall Dynasty Rank: No. 72
Highest Rank: No. 57
Lowest Rank: No. 97
Equivalent Startup ADP: 6.12
Key veterans in same value tier: Robert Woods, Jamison Crowder

Courtland Sutton, WR, Southern Methodist

Overall Dynasty Rank: No. 73
Highest Rank: No. 65
Lowest Rank: No. 89
Equivalent Startup ADP: 7.01
Key veterans in same value tier: Will Fuller, Sterling Shepard

Ronald Jones, RB, USC

Overall Dynasty Rank: No. 81
Highest Rank: No. 70
Lowest Rank: No. 112
Equivalent Startup ADP: 7.09
Key veterans in same value tier: O.J. Howard, Nelson Agholor

James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State

Overall Dynasty Rank: No. 84
Highest Rank: No. 58
Lowest Rank: No. 118
Equivalent Startup ADP: 7.12
Key veterans in same value tier: Martavis Bryant, Chris Thompson

Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon

Overall Dynasty Rank: No. 87
Highest Rank: No. 83
Lowest Rank: No. 102
Equivalent Startup ADP: 8.03
Key veterans in same value tier: Kirk Cousins, Lamar Miller

Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

Overall Dynasty Rank: No. 88
Highest Rank: No. 68
Lowest Rank: No. 135
Equivalent Startup ADP: 8.04
Key veterans in same value tier: Kyle Rudolph, Chris Godwin

Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn

Overall Dynasty Rank: No. 97
Highest Rank: No. 97
Lowest Rank: No. 111
Equivalent Startup ADP: 9.01
Key veterans in same value tier: Aaron Jones, Isaiah Crowell

Based on this value breakdown, I’m predicting the biggest post-NFL draft riser among our dynasty rankers will be Calvin Ridley. He appears to be the most polarizing player in this cohort as he has a high rank of 68 and a low rank of 135. That’s 67 spots, or a five-and-a-half-round difference from a startup draft perspective. Ridley is a lock to be selected in the first round of the draft in my opinion and I think the rankers on our team who are lowest on Ridley will re-evaluate his placement once this has played out.

Check out last week’s Dynasty Two-Minute Drill for more perspective on this topic. I’ll issue a post-draft version of this article following our next dynasty rankings update.

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