In order to win a DFS tournament, it is essential to build a unique roster that embraces the randomness within each NFL game. We must identify players and game scenarios the rest of the field is overlooking because when these low-owned plays hit, rosters soar past the competition and into first place.
Joe Mixon was our top play last week, as the Bengals back piled up 153 total yards and a touchdown at only 15% rostership. The correlation play with D’Andre Swift also paid off when the Lions star found the end zone in garbage time. On the other end of the spectrum, Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen was an absolute disaster because the Baltimore Ravens completely stomped L.A.
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The hate on A.J. Brown has gone too far, and I will not stand for it.
The third-year Titan is one of the most talented wide receivers in the league — his breakout game is coming, perhaps even this week against the Kansas City Chiefs in a game with a ridiculous 58-point total.
Brown’s low projected rostership percentage is staggering. He is coming off a seven-catch, 91-yard performance on nine targets despite dealing with food poisoning. That is alpha WR1 usage, especially considering that running mate Julio Jones is likely to be limited or even out with a hamstring issue.
The elephant — or Big Dog — in the room on this week’s slate is the chalky Derrick Henry. Are you playing the King at $9,200, or are you bold enough to fade him?
If you are willing to spend big, you will need to heavily differentiate your lineup elsewhere. Pairing Brown and Henry is a viable strategy that goes overlooked because people assume they cannot both hit in the same game. But just think back to the shootout against the Texans last year when Brown popped for 10 catches, 151 yards and a touchdown while Henry smashed for 250 rushing yards and a score.
If you're fading Henry, then Brown provides incredible leverage against the field in the event only one of them hits. In that case, any points Brown scores will come directly at the expense of every Henry roster.
This play is more game-environment than matchup-based while embracing the public’s recency bias on Brown’s recent struggles. The talented wide receiver admitted that he is no longer on a snap count, so now all we need is the breakout game.
Week 7 shall mark the return of A.J. Brown WR1 Szn.
The Bears have been trying to hide Justin Fields all season by leaning on the run and solid defense. Unfortunately, on deck this week is a matchup against the Bucs' historically great run defense.
Tampa Bay boasts such a stout run defense that teams no longer bother even running against them:
- 98 rush attempts faced (fewest among 32 defenses)
- 329 rushing yards allowed (fewest)
- 229 yards after contact (fewest)
- 3.4 yards per carry (fewest)
- 3 touchdowns allowed (third-fewest)
Is this the week the Bears finally take the training wheels off and unleash Fields? If so, Robinson would be the biggest beneficiary.
Despite busting in the box score last week against the Green Bay Packers, Robinson hit season highs across the board in terms of utilization numbers. He saw a sizeable three end-zone targets (most among all players), five deep targets (most) and 219 air yards (third). That is true alpha usage predictive of a smash fantasy performance.
Robinson caught 10 of his 16 targets for 90 yards in this exact matchup last season. If he manages to find the paint this week, it is a complete Yahtzee at $5,100 on DraftKings and $5,800 on FanDuel.
Panthers head coach Matt Rhule recently talked about establishing the run and transforming the team’s offensive identity. And that would be fantastic news for Hubbard, who handled 94% of Carolina’s running back carries last week.
The rookie running back posted a solid 65% snap rate against the Vikings in Week 6 while registering 19 of the team’s 20 total running back opportunities (carries plus targets). The dynamic back is clearly the preferred option out of the backfield.
The Panthers are three-point road favorites against a Giants defense that has been skewered by the run all season. The G-Men have faced 182 rush attempts this season, the fourth-most among teams, and they have allowed 823 rushing yards (fourth-most) and 527 rushing yards after contact (fifth-most).
Darrell Henderson smashed the Giants in this matchup last week for 107 total yards and two touchdowns.
Hubbard is appropriately priced at $6,100 on DraftKings and $7,300 on FanDuel. This should depress his rostership percentage, with everyone chasing the flashier names of Henderson, Joe Mixon and D’Andre Swift in the same price range.
PFF’s fantasy projections rank Hubbard as the overall RB10 this week.
I am a sucker for the squeaky-wheel narrative. It worked with Robert Woods back in Week 5 when he erupted for 12 catches and 150 yards immediately after Sean McVay talked about needing to get him more involved in the offense.
Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni recently said, “we’ve gotta get the ball to Miles more.” If only there were a man somewhere in Philadelphia who could make that happen…
There are whispers that Sirianni could become a one-and-done coach if things don't turn around fast, so he needs to figure out a way to get the ball into the hands of his best playmakers.
He's not been used much, but Sanders has tallied a massive 78% snap rate over the last two weeks — this Eagles backfield has belonged to him. However, 20 carries and nine targets will not cut it if the Eagles want to win football games.
A matchup against the Raiders presents a fantastic get-right spot to grease this squeaky wheel. Here is the rushing production allowed by the Raiders defense:
- 784 yards (eighth-most)
- 510 yards after contact (eighth-most)
- 7 touchdowns (fifth-most)
- 23 runs of 10-plus yards (third-most)
- 4.6 yards per carry (sixth-worst)
Sanders is ridiculously cheap at $5,100 on DraftKings and $5,900 on FanDuel. So take a shot on the Eagles deciding to finally feed their star running back.