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DFS targets with the biggest fantasy point ceilings in Week 18

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz (2) looks to pass Sunday, Nov. 28, 2021, during a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Our series of analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups.


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In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.

METHODOLOGY

For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: betting spread, over/under and average fantasy points scored for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I get the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I then simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game. Then, I find the highest-scoring quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST on the slate.

The last step is totaling the number of times a particular team shows up as the top option for the slate at each position and dividing by the total simulations. That number is what I call “highest-scoring %” in the team-labeled bar charts below. Below the charts, I join the highest-projected player on that team for the position, then list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.

QUARTERBACKS

Pos Highest % Player Team DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
QB 9.38 Carson Wentz IND 19.1 5,800 18.0 7,200
QB 9.37 Kyler Murray ARZ 26.5 7,400 24.8 8,400
QB 8.98 Josh Allen BUF 28.2 8,100 26.7 8,800
QB 6.80 Aaron Rodgers GB 23.5 7,800 22.4 8,200
QB 6.42 Matthew Stafford LA 21.3 6,700 19.6 7,400
QB 6.18 Taysom Hill NO 21.1 6,200 20.0 7,700
QB 6.06 Tom Brady TB 25.2 7,500 23.3 8,100
QB 5.31 Trey Lance SF 16.9 5,500 16.1 7,000
QB 4.41 Tyler Huntley BLT 18.8 5,700 17.8 7,000
QB 4.11 Ryan Tannehill TEN 23.3 6,000 22.0 7,300
QB 3.60 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 15.2 5,400 14.3 6,700
QB 3.47 Mac Jones NE 17.5 5,400 16.4 7,000
QB 3.47 Russell Wilson SEA 21.6 6,300 20.2 7,500
QB 3.19 Kirk Cousins MIN 18.6 6,100 17.2 7,200
QB 3.02 Case Keenum CLV 16.4 4,800 15.3 6,300
QB 2.54 Taylor Heinicke WAS 16.7 5,400 15.8 6,900
QB 2.49 Trevor Lawrence JAX 16.5 5,100 15.3 6,500
QB 2.29 Zach Wilson NYJ 13.5 5,200 12.8 6,500
QB 2.10 Mike Glennon NYG 11.8 4,900 11.3 6,200
QB 1.84 Jared Goff DET 13.7 5,400 12.7 6,800
QB 1.83 Justin Fields CHI 19.2 5,400 18.0 7,100
QB 1.54 Matt Ryan ATL 18.9 5,200 17.5 6,400
QB 1.22 Davis Mills HST 17.6 5,300 16.3 6,400
QB 1.05 Joe Burrow CIN 9.6 7,200 9.3 7,900
QB 0.75 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 16.7 5,300 15.6 6,500
QB 0.14 Sam Darnold CAR 14.4 5,000 13.4 6,600

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