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DFS targets with the biggest fantasy point ceilings in Week 17

Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) celebrates throwing a touchdown against the Washington Football Team during the first quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Our series of analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups.


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In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.

METHODOLOGY

For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: betting spread, over/under and average fantasy points scored for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I get the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I then simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game. Then, I find the highest-scoring quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST on the slate.

The last step is totaling the number of times a particular team shows up as the top option for the slate at each position and dividing by the total simulations. That number is what I call “highest-scoring %” in the team-labeled bar charts below. Below the charts, I join the highest-projected player on that team for the position, then list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.

QUARTERBACKS

Pos Highest % Player Team DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
QB 8.93 Dak Prescott DAL 23.6 6,700 21.8 7,400
QB 7.73 Patrick Mahomes KC 23.7 7,800 22.0 8,500
QB 7.40 Matthew Stafford LA 21.0 7,100 19.5 7,600
QB 6.68 Tom Brady TB 26.5 7,600 24.5 8,300
QB 6.44 Josh Allen BUF 26.5 8,000 25.0 8,800
QB 6.07 Justin Herbert LAC 23.5 6,800 21.9 8,200
QB 5.16 Carson Wentz IND 16.0 5,700 15.1 7,000
QB 4.98 Kyler Murray ARZ 22.3 7,300 20.9 8,200
QB 4.57 Taysom Hill NO 19.9 6,000 18.8 7,700
QB 4.37 Mac Jones NE 19.9 5,300 18.8 6,800
QB 4.36 Tyler Huntley BLT 18.9 5,600 17.8 7,500
QB 4.32 Jalen Hurts PHI 23.1 6,600 21.6 7,900
QB 4.10 Joe Burrow CIN 20.4 6,900 18.9 7,700
QB 4.07 Trey Lance SF 20.0 4,800 19.0 6,400
QB 3.07 Drew Lock DEN 15.9 5,100 15.0 6,500
QB 3.00 Derek Carr LV 17.9 5,800 16.6 6,900
QB 2.76 Ryan Tannehill TEN 18.5 5,900 17.6 7,300
QB 2.15 Zach Wilson NYJ 14.4 5,400 13.5 6,500
QB 2.01 Russell Wilson SEA 21.6 6,200 20.4 7,300
QB 1.80 Taylor Heinicke WAS 17.4 5,300 16.3 6,900
QB 1.68 Matt Ryan ATL 16.3 5,300 15.2 6,600
QB 1.54 Mike Glennon NYG 12.2 5,000 11.6 6,200
QB 1.20 Sam Darnold CAR 15.1 5,000 14.2 6,600
QB 1.03 Davis Mills HST 16.0 5,500 14.9 6,400
QB 0.98 Jared Goff DET 10.3 5,400 9.9 6,700
QB 0.69 Justin Fields CHI 17.5 5,500 16.6 7,000
QB 0.42 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 16.7 5800 15.8 6,700
QB 0.32 Trevor Lawrence JAX 15.6 5000 14.6 6,500

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