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DFS targets with the biggest fantasy point ceilings in Week 16

Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) celebrates his touchdown scored against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Our series of analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups.


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In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.

METHODOLOGY

For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: betting spread, over/under and average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I get the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I then simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game. Then, I find the highest-scoring quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST on the slate.

The last step is totaling the number of times a particular team shows up as the top option for the slate at each position and dividing by the total simulations. That number is what I call “highest-scoring %” in the team-labeled bar charts below. Below the charts, I join the highest-projected player on that team for the position, then list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.

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QUARTERBACKS

Pos Highest % Player Team DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
QB 12.33 Justin Herbert LAC 24.1 8,400 25.8 7,200
QB 9.78 Matthew Stafford LA 20.3 7,900 22.1 6,700
QB 8.43 Patrick Mahomes KC 19.4 8,700 20.6 7,700
QB 7.76 Kirk Cousins MIN 18.1 7,300 19.5 6,200
QB 5.69 Tim Boyle DET 15.3 6,000 16.4 4,000
QB 5.32 Russell Wilson SEA 19.5 7,500 20.7 6,100
QB 5.17 Joe Burrow CIN 20.1 7,100 21.7 5,900
QB 5.13 Lamar Jackson BLT 22.1 7,800 23.5 6,900
QB 4.44 Tom Brady TB 20.9 8,400 22.7 7,200
QB 4.05 Matt Ryan ATL 20.7 6,800 22.3 5,400
QB 4.03 Jalen Hurts PHI 21.3 7,700 22.6 6,400
QB 3.80 Derek Carr LV 18.2 7,000 19.6 5,800
QB 3.61 Josh Allen BUF 21.1 8,500 22.5 7,500
QB 3.16 Cam Newton CAR 10.0 7,200 10.3 5,600
QB 3.09 Drew Lock DEN 14.9 6,600 15.9 5,100
QB 2.90 Zach Wilson NYJ 14.6 6,600 15.4 5,300
QB 2.43 Trevor Lawrence JAX 16.0 6,500 17.0 5,000
QB 2.39 Justin Fields CHI 16.7 7,000 17.6 5,200
QB 2.37 Mac Jones NE 16.0 6,700 17.1 5,300
QB 2.23 Davis Mills HST 15.9 6,600 17.2 5,500
QB 2.17 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 12.9 6,800 13.9 5,500
QB 1.41 Jake Fromm NYG 14.2 6,400 15.0 5,000
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