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DFS targets with the biggest fantasy point ceilings in Week 14

Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler (30) celebrates his touchdown carry in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Our series of analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups.


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In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the highest scorer of the slate. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.

METHODOLOGY

For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: betting spread, over/under and average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I get the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I then simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game. Then, I find the highest-scoring quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST on the slate.

The last step is totaling the number of times a particular team shows up as the top option for the slate at each position and dividing by the total simulations. That number is what I call “highest-scoring %” in the team-labeled bar charts below. Below the charts, I join the highest-projected player on that team for the position, then list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.

QUARTERBACKS

Pos Highest % Player Team DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
QB 11.56 Tom Brady TB 22.1 7,600 20.4 8,200
QB 8.88 Patrick Mahomes KC 23.4 8,000 21.9 8,500
QB 7.30 Dak Prescott DAL 20.5 6,700 19.2 8,100
QB 7.09 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 17.0 5,800 15.9 6,700
QB 6.93 Justin Herbert LAC 23.9 7,100 22.2 8,400
QB 6.90 Josh Allen BUF 23.2 7,800 21.6 8,800
QB 6.74 Ryan Tannehill TEN 21.4 6,400 20.4 7,300
QB 5.29 Cam Newton CAR 19.2 5,400 18.2 7,400
QB 4.92 Joe Burrow CIN 20.5 6,000 19.0 7,100
QB 4.45 Taylor Heinicke WAS 17.5 5,500 16.5 7,100
QB 4.36 Russell Wilson SEA 22.5 6,600 21.2 7,500
QB 4.25 Taysom Hill NO 17.8 5,600 16.9 7,700
QB 4.20 Zach Wilson NYJ 13.3 5,300 12.6 6,600
QB 4.15 Teddy Bridgewater DEN 19.6 5,700 18.6 7,200
QB 2.28 Matt Ryan ATL 16.8 5,300 15.8 6,800
QB 2.24 Baker Mayfield CLV 15.7 5,200 14.9 6,500
QB 2.24 Davis Mills HST 18.2 5,000 16.7 6,600
QB 2.03 Jake Fromm NYG 13.1 4,800 12.4 6,000
QB 1.71 Lamar Jackson BLT 22.6 7,400 21.1 7,900
QB 1.67 Derek Carr LV 16.7 5,900 15.6 7,200
QB 1.60 Jared Goff DET 15.2 5,100 14.2 6,400
QB 0.69 Trevor Lawrence JAX 16.5 5,100 15.4 6,300
PFF's new Best Bets Tool allows you to take advantage of the best prop and game betting opportunities for each NFL slate during the 2021 season.

RUNNING BACKS

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